Stat of the Day, 9th December 2012
Another poor showing for an SotD selection yesterday, as I seem to be going through somewhat of a drought this month. Paphos never got involved yesterday and at no point did he look like a horse that was 4/4 over C&D. He eventually came home in 6th place at 4/1.
I’ve had enough of Lingfield to last me a while, it seems like they’ve had meetings every day for ages! With this in mind, we’re off to the heart of England for a Class 4 Beginners’ Chase over the minimum 2 miles on soft ground, as thirteen runners are set to go to post for the…
Trainer Nick Williams has only sent six runners to Warwick in the last two years, but they have all performed impressively, rewarding him with figures of 123112, a 50% winning strike rate giving profits of 13pts, whilst his 100% record at getting horses in the frame has benefited E/W backers to the tune of 17pts from just four bets.
Of those six runners, three of them were chasers: recording results of 112. The yard is in decent form too, with two winners and two others placed from six races over the last week.
Nick has two runners out at Warwick today: both chasers. George Nympton has a chance of making the frame in the 1.40 race, but I’m more drawn to the previous race, where we will be represented by Greywell Boy. (George Nympton, incidentally won this very race last year.)
Greywell Boy was sixth on his chasing debut at Bangor in October and will undoubtedly have learned plenty from that outing and he is expected to come on for that run. He was also placed in a couple of hurdle events last Autumn, before his recent switch to the bigger obstacles. In fact, his best form over hurdles came over trips of 16.5 and 17 furlongs and the outing at Bangor was a 2m 5f contest, which proved too far for him. The drop back to 2 miles should suit him far better today.
Daryl Jacob was on board for that last race and he takes the ride once again today, so we know the jockey is at least able to get our mount over the fences! Daryl, himself, has a decent record at Warwick with a strike rate of 27% (55% of horses placed) from 22 rides over the last couple of years and he’s in pretty good form at present too, managing to steer five runners from ten into the places in the last week.
This is a wide-open contest, but I feel Greywell Boy will have what it takes today to give us a run and ultimately a return from our money. The current best price available is 11/2 BOG with bet365, so the call from me today is a 1 win pt bet at 11/2 BOG with them but as ever, please take the opportunity to…