Stat of the Day, 11th December 2012
More woodwork-rattling for Stat of the Day yesterday as Everaard, back in to 4/1 joint favouritism from a recommended 15/2, was passed in the home straight whilst hanging on to third place. He was only beaten four and a half lengths, but he was beaten. The combination of top weight and slightly slower than ideal ground (plus the big field) did for him, but he’s definitely ready to win and quicker ground and a smaller field should do the trick round Musselburgh.
On to today, and we’re going loop the loop at Britain’s last remaining figure of eight track, in the…
Oliver Sherwood is enjoying something of a renaissance this season, having had a couple of indifferent years in the training game. One place where he’s always remained on top of his game is here at Fontwell, as figures of 16 from 59 (+£75.92) attest.
Sherwood has just the one runner today, and it’s recent course and distance winner, Kaituna. So, immediately we know the track and trip present no concerns; and that the trainer knows exactly how to win here. What else can we find to bolster our confidence in this lass?
Well, although she’s never won on soft ground, she’s only tried it twice, and that resulted in a fall (too early to say how she’d have fared) and a close up third place. Her last time out course and distance win was on good to soft and, being a daughter of sire of the moment, Flemensfirth, there’s a chance she could improve for the deeper ground.
Jockey Leighton Aspell rode her to victory last time, and normally rides her so the pilot is familiar with the horse. Kaituna also seems to prefer small fields, where her record is two wins and a place from six runs. And in Class 4 handicaps – today’s grade – she’s won one and placed in the other of her two attempts.
In summary, this is her ground, course, distance, grade, and jockey. And she’s unexposed over fences, having been very unlucky in two non-completions (slipped then pulled up when challenging first time, fell when a length down in second at third last).
If her jumping holds up, she must have every chance, which is why she’s no better than 3/1 favourite this morning. I still consider that a touch of value, and it gives us a decent chance of a good run for the Stat of the Day money, despite not being a ‘sexy’ price.
BetVictor are 3/1, everyone is shorter at time of writing, so do…