Stat of the Day, 17th December 2012

Stat of the Day: 17/12/12

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2012

Matt signed off his week in the SotD chair with a fine 11/2 victory, as No No Bingo held on bravely to defeat Ballywatt, who seemed to travel much better in the closing stages. The runner-up just didn’t seem to be able to get in front and we were on the right end of a short head victory for once! Matt also beat the market quite well, as his advised 11/2 became 4/1 jt fav at the off.

So, I’m back with you today as we head off to East Sussex for what might become a bit of a slog in a Class 4 Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground. It looks a competitive affair, despite only five runners tackling the.…

2.05 Plumpton

Of all the trainers on display today at Plumpton, Venetia Williams has the best recent record with six wins from twenty-four in the last two years (25%) alongside a 33.33% place strike record. She has three runners out today in total, but she has opted to send two to Ffos Las (a much shorter and quicker round trip from her Herefordshire base) and just the one horse on a 350-mile or so round trip to Plumpton: a fact not totally ignored here at SotD.

Her decent record at Plumpton is made to look better if we only consider chase events, where she has saddled up four winners from eight in the last two years and that record is further improved to 4/6 in Handicap Chases. There’s got to be a reason why one horse has been sent alone to compete in a specific type of event at a specific track, hasn’t there?

If you’ve looked at the cards already, you’ll have already worked out that the horse in question is Guydus.

Guydus is a very consistent sort, having won twice and secured four runner-up positions from eight runs this year and ran really well in a 3-length defeat at Folkestone a fortnight ago. In fact he’s actually won two of his last four outings alongside that 2nd place finish at Folkestone, so he’s approaching the end of the year in decent form and one of those two victories came on his only outing here at Plumpton over today’s trip.

The trainer has a good record in these events, the horse is in good nick and has a relatively recent C&D victory in the bag. Our jockey today is Harry Challoner, who will no doubt be buoyed by a good win on Plein Pouvoir on Friday at Cheltenham and he’s sure to take a very useful and welcome 5lbs off today, especially as Guydus is officially a pound outside the handicap.

There do seem to be many things pointing our way today and unfortunately this means there’s a very good chance that our selection will go off as favourite. We don’t particularly like selecting favourites, but 1 in 3 of them win: it’s just a matter of getting the right one! The main challenge should come from Brunettesonly, who is also strong in the market, which means Guydus isn’t as short as he could be and there could very well still be some value in the 9/4 BOG widely on offer at present.

That price is currently available with at least 11 firms, I’ve got some funds in a Paddy Power account, so my play today is a 1pt win only bet on Guydus at 9/4 BOG with Paddy Power, but for your favoured bookie, just…

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