Stat of the Day, 19th December 2012
No joy yesterday as our 4/1 selection Lucky Mark was well backed into 5/2, but could only finish 6th. There was plenty of bumping going on early in the race and our mount got boxed in slightly, but had every chance coming round the final bend. Unfortunately when push came to shove, there was no extra to be found and hee looked like he was in reverse for the half furlong.
It’s another short hop for SotD today, as we move some 30-odd miles North for some more A/W action. This time it’s a Class 6, one mile handicap contest for the.…
Richard Rowe has a creditable record on the Polytrack at Kempton, even if it’s not the best around. Seven winners from forty-five gives him a strike rate of just under 16% and level stakes profits of some 37.5pts ( a very respectable 83.3% return on stakes). However, it’s the reappearance of one of his horses that catches the eye more than his general stats.
Pastoral Jet seems to have found himself a bit of a niche here at Kempton: his overall record reads 084352141 for a 2.5pt profit, but only the last four of those were over the one mile trip being contested today. So, he is 2141 over C&D for +7.5pts
This race doesn’t look the strongest on the card and seems littered with unreliable types and Pastoral Jet comes here in good form, having won on two of his last three starts. He managed to hold off Blackthorn Stick last time out, and that one has since gone on to win his subsequent outing.
Today’s jockey is Aaron Jones, who will come here in good heart, having secured his first winner last time out and will be looking for a quick follow-up.
Unfortunately the low standard of the race coupled with Pastoral Jet‘s recent impressive form (especially over C&D) mean that he’s the overnight favourite at around the 3/1 mark. I managed to grab 5.8 on Betfair, but there’s not enough liquidity in the markets yet for me to use that as the SotD price, so the official play today is a 1pt win bet on Pastoral Jet at 3/1 BOG with Bet365. They were only prices on offer as I wrote this, so to see what’s on offer elsewhere, simply…
P.S. At 0930 William Hill were offering 7/2 BOG, which looks a good price, if you’re not already on at 3/1!