Well I Declare: 19th December

Well I Declare: 19th December

Well I Declare: 19th December

Racing from Newbury, Ludlow, Kempton and Lingfield today, plus a detailed breakdown of the Kempton Winter A/W season so far.



Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.15:  Favourites have won seven renewals during the last decade.

Class 3 three-mile handicap chase due to be contested at 12.50: Nigel Twiston-Davies has won three of the six contests and the trainer only had Tullyraine engaged at the penultimate stage.  The last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3, with Tullyraine set to carry 11-5 on this occasion if the eight-year-old is offered the green light

Class 4 maiden hurdle event scheduled for 1.20: Nicky Henderson has as secured four of the last twelve renewals of this event with trainer holding three options at the five-day stage.  Five clear market leaders have obliged to date alongside a joint favourite.  Ten of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.  The last seven winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less.

Class 4 two and a quarter-mile handicap chased scheduled for 1.50: Five of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Three mile Graduation Chase due to be contested at 2.25: The four favourites to date have secured three gold and one silver medal with each winner carrying weights of 11-4 or more.

Novice hurdle ‘qualifier‘ scheduled for 3.00: Five-year-olds have landed six renewals during the last eleven years whilst vintage representatives have secured eight of the last twelve available toteplacepot positions for good measure.  Four of the last ten renewals have been secured by favourites, during which time, seven winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less. Nicky Henderson held three options earlier in the week for a race that the trainer has won four times during the last decade.



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General stats: Although Evan Williams leads the way in terms of the number of winners (42) at Ludlow during the last five years, Nicky Henderson (35) and Jonjo O’Neill (16) are not that far behind and this pair boast level stake profits at the track which Evan lacks.  Jonjo’s lack of winners compared to the other two trainers is offset by his far superior LSP figure which reads twenty-eight points at the time of writing.



Statistics since the end of the turf season:

Number of races at Kempton: 80

Favourite stats (includes joint and co favourites): 28 (35.0% of races)

Ratio of Odds on favourites: 6/11 (54.5%)


Trainers with winners at Kempton:

5–A. Balding (11/10*–11/4*–4/1**–11/4–7/2*)

3–G. Baker (8/11*–8/1–20/1)

3–J. Boyle (2/1–14/1–5/2*)

3–David (P.D.) Evans (7/1–2/1–9/2*)

3–J.S. Moore (4/1–8/1–9/2)


Beaten favourites at Kempton:

3–A. Balding (Evs–4/6–2/1)

3–Jo Crowley (4/7–6/4**–5/2**)

3–J. Gosden (10/11–6/4–6/4)

3–Gary Moore (11/4–9/4**–11/4)

3–J. Ryan (9/2–5/2–5/1**)



General stats: Dan Kubler held three options at Lingfield this week at the time of writing with Mont Signal (12.50) having been confirmed as a runner on this card.  Daniel has saddled three winners at Lingfield from just seven runners to date, figures which have produced an LSP reading of eight points.

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