Sat TV Trends: 22nd Dec 2012

The C4 cameras head to Ascot and Haydock for the last weekend before Christmas – Andy Newton’s got all the key TV race trends…..

Ascot (ATR/C4)

Expect the ground to be testing at Ascot

1.30 – Shawbrook Bank Graduation Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+) CH4 2m5f110y

4 previous runnings
4/4 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
3/4 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/4 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
3/4 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/4 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) before
3/4 – Had won just once over fences in the UK before
2/4 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/4 – Ridden by Ruby Wlash
1/4 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 4 years is 2/1

2.00 – Long Walk Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m1f

10/10 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/10 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/10 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (4 won, 4 runners-up, 2 unplaced)
9/10 – Won by a French-bred horse
9/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/10 – Aged 8 or younger
8/10 – Had won at least 5 times over hurdles before
7/10 – Winning favourites
7/10 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
6/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/10 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

Note:
2009 and 2010 runnings were staged at Newbury
2005 running was staged at Chepstow
2004  running was staged at Windsor

2.35 – Ascot Racecourse Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
6/7 – Won by a French bred horse
5/7 – Carried 10-12 or less
5/7 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
5/7 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/7 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
4/7 – Aged 7 years-old
4/7 – Placed favourites
4/7 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/7 – Had run at Ascot before
4/7 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/7 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
2/7 – Trained by Henry Daly
1/7 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 7 years is 13.3/1

Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor

3.10 – The Ladbroke (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m

8/8 – Won 1-3 times over hurdles
8/8 – Won by a horse aged between 5-7 years-old
8/8 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles)
6/8 – Favourites unplaced
6/8 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
6/8 – Had an official rating of between 127 and 136
5/8 – Aged 5 years-old
5/8 – Returned 12/1 or bigger
5/8 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
4/8 – Won its last race
4/8 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
3/8 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/8 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/8 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 14/1

Haydock (RUK/C4)

1.45 – Bet At bluesq.com Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (3yo+) CH4 2m4f

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
6/8 – Raced at Haydock before
6/8 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
6/8 – Irish (3) or French (3) bred
5/8 – Placed favourites
5/8 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
5/8 – Carried 10-9 or less
5/8 – Finished third last time out
3/8 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 13/2

2.15 – Blue Square Bet Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) CH4 3m

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
5/5 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
5/5 – Failed to win last time out
5/5 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Placed favourites
4/5 – Had won between 2-3 times over fences before
4/5 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
4/5 – Had won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
3/5 – Had raced at Haydock before (hurdles or fences)
2/5 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
2/5 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (both unplaced)
2/5 – French bred
2/5 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 6/1

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