Stat of the Day, 26th December 2012
SotD returned a small profit on our last race before Christmas as Dubh Go Leir battled on to take 3rd place at 7/1 (we’d advised an 8/1 E/W bet). The race was won by the two market leaders and our selection was never near to winning but stayed on gamely to give us some pre-Christmas cheer.
We were quite hampered last Sunday by only having Thurles to choose from, whilst today poses a different type of problem. We’ve twelve meetings to choose from and it’s almost a case of not being able to see the woods because of the trees!
So, I’ve plumped for a Class 3 Novice Handicap Chase at the feature meeting of the day, where eight runners are set to tackle two miles, four and a half furlongs for the.…
Emma Lavelle’s yard is in cracking form at present, producing six winners from the last twelve races and a total of 58% of her runners in the last month have made the fist three home (14/24).
She also has a good record here at Kempton with the joint highest strike rate over the last two years of all trainers on display today. Both herself and Nicky Henderson share a 30% strike rate, but whilst Mr Henderson’s ROI figure shows a very respectable 22.5%, Miss Lavelle’s runners have returned a level stakes profit of 15pts, giving a 75% return on stakes invested.
This profit has come via six winners from twenty over the last two years, whilst her overall figures in Kempton chases is also very good with a 7/33 (21.2%) record which has generated level stakes profit of some 23.2pts (70.3%), which is pretty much in keeping with her more recent form here.
It should also be noted that her current “purple patch” is no fluke. Since taking her trainers’ licence, she has enjoyed a 20% strike rate in the month of December, courtesy of 16 winners from 80, generating 40.5pts profit.
So, we’ve a trainer in form with a good course record who also tends to get her horses ready for this time of year. Now all we need is a horse!
And I think we’ve a good one, here. Emma Lavelle (in true SotD fashion!) has just the one runner at the course today and he competes in a chase contest. His name is Coole River.
Coole River was a decent novice hurdler in Ireland for Jessica Harrington in 2009/10 and won a couple of Grade 2 hurdle contests. He returned from a long absence due to injury to make a chase debut for Emma Lavelle when beaten by just over two lengths by Grandioso at Wincanton last time out (20 days ago) and looked like he needed that run and should come on stronger for it today.
The ground may very well pose problems for many runners today, but Coole River has decent form with some cut in the ground. He’s 214313112 on ground rated soft or worse. Those four wins from nine have rewarded followers with a profit of 12.25pts at SP and his consistency has to be admired. That last run at Wincanton was over a trip just half a furlong longer than today on pretty testing ground too.
My only area of slight concern is that this is only his second outing over the larger obstacles, but a repeat of his jumping from Wincanton should be good enough to see him go close today.
He’s currently available in several places at 4/1 BOG, so I’ve taken a 1pt win bet on Coole River at 4/1 BOG with bet365, but to use a different bookmaker of your choice, please feel free to…