Stat of the Day, 27th December 2012
We had to settle for a third place finish yesterday, after Coole River was backed in from our 4/1 to be a 3/1 jt fav at the off. Due to the shortness of the price, there was no E/W option and it goes down as a loss of 1pt. I think we’d have got second place, but for being badly hampered by a faller late on, but we were never to going to catch the other jt fav Rajdhani Express who won very easily if truth be told and may be one to follow again.
We’re going to swerve all this mud and heavy ground today and go back to the West Midlands for a tea time spin on the Polytrack. The race isn’t quite as illustrious as others around today, as it’s a 13-runner, Class 6 Handicap and the trip is 6 furlongs (give or take 4 yards!) for the…
William Stone is probably not one of the first names you’d think of if you were looking to place a bet at Wolverhampton. His career strike rate of just 11% (4/44) at this track is also less than inspiring. There is, however, a little more comfort in the fact that 19 from 44 E/W bets (43.2%) here have been successful and have generated almost 10pts profit at SP (10.6%).
These E/W figures, whilst profitable, aren’t good enough for us to use as reasoning for SotD purposes, but they are long-term results. Mr Stone’s more recent record at Wolverhampton offers far more encouragement to us. 2012 has been a pretty good year for William’s horses here at Dunstall Park, as an impressive 14 out of 16 runners have made the first five home with ten of them being placed for E/W purposes. This 62.5% place strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 15.5pts at SP (48.4% ROI) and it should also be noted that three of them have gone on to win, giving a further profit of 5.5pts.
Mr Stone’s sole entrant today is Imjin River, a pretty consistent performer on the All-Weather himself. He has managed to make the frame on four of six starts this year including two runs over Course & Distance. He suffered a couple of narrow margin defeats on the Polytrack during the autumn, both by less than a length whilst staying on at the end of 6 furlongs.
His last outing here over C&D resulted in a defeat by just 0.75 lengths back in September off a mark just a pound lower than today’s OR of 58. This slight rise is, however, more than compensated by the booking of the promising Natasha Eaton, who will take a welcome 5lbs off today.
Imjin River has had a bit of a break (off the track since 9th October) and is expected to come back fresh. He is fitted with a tongue tie for the first time today, which is also expected to help him.
His recent time off, coupled with the fact that both the horse’s and trainer’s stats are better as E/W bets mean that the prudent option today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Imjin River at 14/1 BOG with William Hill. This price will invariably fluctuate during the day, so please avail yourselves of the opportunity to…