Sat TV Trends: 29th Dec 2012

Another busy Saturday with seven more LIVE C4 races from Newbury, Doncaster and Leopardstown – See all the races covered from a trends angle here….

Newbury (C4/ATR)

1.35 – Betfred “The Bonus King” Novices´ Chase (for the Hallowe´en Trophy) (CLASS 3) (4yo+) CH4 2m2f110y

9/9 – Priced 7/2 or less
9/9 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
9/9 – Winner came from the top 3 in the market
9/9 – Had won no more than twice (fences) previously
8/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/9 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
7/9 – Had raced within the last 2 months
7/9 – Favourites placed
6/9 – Ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners) later that season
5/9 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
4/9 – Won their last race
4/9 – Went onto race in the Arkle Chase (no winners) later that season
4/9 – Won by trainer by Paul Nicholls
4/9 – Favourites (1 joint) that won
3/9 – Won by a German bred horse
3/9 – Won by a French bred horse
3/9 – Raced at Sandown in their last race
3/9 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/9 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
2/9 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 9/4

2.10 – Betfred Mandarin Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-130) CH4 3m2f110y

Only 1 previous running
Rey Nacarado (Charlie Longsdon) won the race 12 months ago
Kim Bailey has a 40% record with his chasers at the track
Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his chasers at the course
Charlie Longsdon has a 22% record with his chasers at Newbury
Oliver Sherwood has a 25% record with his chasers at the track
Bob Buckler is just 1 from 21 with his chasers here

10/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/10 – Placed in the top three last time out
10/10 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
9/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/10 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Went onto finish in the top 3 in a novice hurdle race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
5/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/10 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/10 – Went onto win a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Wichita Lineman 2007)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2

Note: The 2005 renewal was run in Jan 2006 at Cheltenham

3.15 – Betfred Goals Galore Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) CH4 2m5f

No previous runnings
Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the course
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just 2 from 42 with his hurdlers at the track
Venetia Williams is only 2 from 30 with her hurdlers at the course

Doncaster (C4/ATR)

2.25 – Bet At bluesq.com Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) CH4 3m110y

No previous runnings
Tim Vaughan has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Alan King and Henry Daly both have a 19% strike-rate with their hurdlers at Doncaster
Sue Smith is just 2 from 24 with her hurdlers here

2.55 – Blue Square Bet Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) CH4 3m

No previous runnings
James Ewart has a 58% record with his chasers at the track
Nicky Henderson has a 27% record with his chasers here
Paul Webber has a 33% record with his chasers at Doncaster
Sue Smith is just 2 from 38 with her chasers at the track

Leopardstown (C4/ATR)

2.00 – Istabraq Festival Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+) Winner €55,250 CH4 2m

11/11 – Irish trained
11/11 – Had raced at Leopardstown (hurdles) before
10/11 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
9/11 – Irish bred
9/11 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Had won a Grade One hurdle before
9/11 – Came from the first 3 in the betting
9/11 – Had won over hurdles at Leopardstown before
9/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
8/11 – Had won between 3-7 times over hurdles before
8/11 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Officially rated 160 or higher
7/11 – Raced at either Fairyhouse (3), Newcastle (2) or Leopardstown (2) last time out
4/11-  Winning favourites
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Went onto win the Champion Hurdle that season
2/11-  Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/11 – Ridden by Paul Townend
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 8/1
Unaccompanied won the race in 2011
Hurricane Fly won the race in 2010