Stat of the Day, 28th December 2012
Imjin River took William Stone’s recent Wolverhampton record to 15 top-5 finishes from 17 yesterday, but unfortunately 5th was the final outcome. Our selection opened up at 20/1 on course and was sent off at 16/1, yet ran a decent race that belied the odds. He gave it his all under a good ride from Natasha Eaton and despite being outgunned in the closing yards, finished a very creditable distance behind the winner: less than two lengths separated the first five home.
We’re taking a short hop East today to Oadby for an 8-runner, Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over two miles for the…
We’re not going specifically with a trainer today, more down the “horses for courses” route, as we take a look at Bin End, trained by Barry Brennan.
Bin End has already won four races at today’s minimum NH trip of two miles and today will be this 6 year old’s fifth visit to the Leicester track, having already won three of his previous four outings here: twice over course and distance. His latest win here was his last run anywhere on 2nd December where he won on Soft ground, which should help today, as there’s definitely going to be some cut in the ground.
Those three previous wins from four attempts here have rewarded followers with a level stakes profit of 31.25pts and although this looks a stronger race than the one four weeks ago, he looks set for another bold showing despite a rise in the weights. I’m also not over concerned if today turns out to be a tactical battle with a sprint to the line, as our mount has won here in a flat race (10 furlongs) too.
Bin End will be ridden by the talented Sam Twiston-Davies today and Sam is no stranger to the horse, having ridden him on three occasions earlier in the year. All those races were at Ludlow, where the partnership recorded two wins from three, all over today’s trip including another soft ground victory. In fact Sam has a 75% win strike rate for owner David Gibbons.
Our selection’s last win was at odds of 5/4, but the rise in weights coupled with a tougher contest today are reflected in the prices available this morning (10.00am), where the best odds on offer were 9/2 BOG and 5/1 non-BOG. I strongly fancy this one to at least make the frame, but there’s not enough in the prices for an E/W bet, yet the 9/2 still represents decent value in this race where I’d expected to see him compete at around the 7/2 mark.
So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Bin End at 9/2 BOG with Stan James, but if you prefer the 5/1 non-BOG from Sporting Bet, then…