Stat of the Day, 7th January 2013
Well, SotD has found a bit of form, with winners advised at 11/2 (returned 5/1) and 3/1 (returned 2/1) over the weekend. My own personal run is three in a row, having nominated 16/1 Jupiter Rex a week ago. That one runs again at Taunton today, but is odds on to prevail and, whilst he probably will, I never back odds on in handicaps, despite many of them winning (Gevrey Chambertin at Wincanton on Saturday, for instance).
To today, and the hat-trick bid for Stat of the Day. It’s moderate even by Monday standards today, and I can see a fair number of shorties winning. One race which is truly terrible and looks like an interesting one for a selection is the…
A 0-60 handicap with the favourite having form figures of 0000000, and having beaten just seven of 66 opponents in those runs. That he comes from the John Butler (i.e. gambling) yard, and that he’s been backed in a few places, is interesting, but on form, this fellow has little chance, even on his best old runs.
He makes the market for anything else you like in here, and I like one trained on the track (well, ‘like’ is probably too strong a term, but I do think he’s interesting). Frank Sheridan is a man who rewards patient punters on the Wolverhampton beach, as he scores occasionally with big priced nags. He trains right here on the track, so there’s never a concern about a horse acting on the surface.
Frank’s record round here is profitable, and exclusively with older horses. With four year olds and up, he’s had twenty winners from 151 runners here (13%) for a profit of a stonking 103 points! Like I say, he does bang some biggies in.
Today sees the turn or Tyrur Ted, an Irish import to the Sheridan yard. Eight years young now, Ted won a Curragh handicap as a 3yo, and has mostly been hurdling since, a sphere in which he’s been in the frame on six of seventeen occasions (winning once). His last run over obstacles was at the 2010 Galway Festival, where he finished mid-division in a competitive event.
He next popped up, in the Sheridan colours, at Kempton more than two years later, in October 2012. Fifth was all he could muster, but he was only beaten a length and a half over today’s ten furlong trip. Since then, he ran once more over a mile and a half, where he showed nothing (as a 4/1 poke) and probably ‘bounced’ (that is, was suffering the effects of a hard race after a long break).
Tyrur Ted has been given a month off to recover, and he’s back to ten furlongs, which might be optimal for him. The big field ought to suit his hold up style, and in a desperate race, I think he’s each way value at around 14/1 BOG (Bet Victor, Stan James). Or you can take the 16/1 with betinternet as I am (not BOG). Or, as I write, there are bits of 27/1 on Betfair for the win.
Each way the play, officially at the 16/1 betinternet. Of course, make sure you…
[STOP PRESS: betinternet’s 16’s went almost immediately so, in the interest of fairness, we’ll use 14/1 BOG as the odds for this one, should we need to record in the profit column of the ledger.]