Monday Placepot: Plumpton 14th January

Placepot Picks

Well, last week’s first attempt at a Monday placepot was the most bizarre double-edged sword you could wish for. Whilst the basic perm returned a small profit, the more advanced approach ‘won’ the placepot, but did not return invested stakes. In other words, it made a loss.

That tells only half the story, however, because the 36 line basic perm claimed all six winners (and four seconds as well!), meaning it would have won the tote jackpot, which was in play at Wolverhampton that day. The jackpot paid £1,823.80, a 50/1 winner for anyone who was brave (reckless?) enough to stake £36 on the jackpot.

But, even more incredible, the six horse accumulator, at odds of 13/8, 7/4, 5/1, 5/4, 6/1 and 4/1 paid £3,410.86, which is 94/1 on your £36 investment!

Hmm. Well, whilst we almost certainly won’t trouble to jackpot judge again any time soon, we can definitely aspire to a winning return on the placepot. And I’ll be tilting at those particular windmills down at Plumpton. Soft ground, small fields, and Monday racing make for the possibility of a tidy return for the shrewd punter. So let’s see if we can’t gain temporary admission to the ‘shrewd punter’s club’ for the afternoon…

Race one is off at 1.10, and do make sure you check for non-runners between now and then. Note also that I’ll be using A’s and B’s for the advanced perm, details of which are here, and a ticket builder tool to construct the wager, which you can use for free here.

Race 1: 1.10

Valdez had looked extremely promising prior to his Cheltenham flop last time. It’s possible that heavy ground was too soggy for him or, more likely, he was simply outclassed by better horses. Either way, this represents a return to slightly firmer going (but still soft!) and a good bit easier class. Alan King is the top man at the track with a 39% win rate in the last five years, and Valdez is my ‘bar a fall’ banker to kick us off.

A – 1

Race 2: 1.40

Assuming we haven’t succumbed to the dreaded early bath, courtesy of an unplaced odds on jolly, it’s a seven runner handicap chase for us. These are the type of races – with quite competitive fields and only two places to go at – which can do some damage to the placepot pools, and I’ll be going deep enough in the hope of picking up some pieces.

I’m playing A’s and B’s here, as follows:

The favourite, Goring Two, has been well backed, and loves this sort of trip/ground. The old boy’s prominent racing style is suited here too, and he’s an A player, though I’m ultimately hoping he’s out of the frame. Owner Occupier has slipped to a winning mark again, has also been backed and, whilst he might want it a bit quicker, he does have soft ground form. A.

On B, I’m siding with Pindar and Brannoc. The former will probably bid to make all, and he could go close to succeeding in that attempt. The latter is interesting: from the shrewd Tony Newcombe stable, he’s very lightly raced and showed marked improvement last time out on his first run since April last year. If he improves on that, he’ll be thereabouts in a weak enough contest.

Lajidaal has had plenty of chances and never won off higher than 87. He’s 95 here and expected to plod on without, hopefully, bothering the first two places.

A – 2, 4 B – 5, 6

Race 3: 2.10

Race three, and we move into the first of two four-runner – and therefore win only – placepot races. Quartz de Monceau made all to win last time out, but had previously been beaten out of sight by Beware Chalk Pit on this sort of ground. His only previous win was when defeating Hobb’s Dream, who also re-opposes today.

Red Anchor hasn’t shown any indication that he might have a future as a race horse, and a very small insurance win bet might suffice ‘just in case’ he decides to bugger up our placepot aspirations. Actually, I think I’ll include him on C, because he is first time in a handicap and up against mostly professional losers, despite a couple of last time winning efforts.

Beware Chalk Pit is the most likely winner and has A to himself. B for Quartz and Hobb’s, and C for Anchor. (If C wins, that means all five other legs must be A horses).

A – 1 B – 3, 4 C – 2

Race 4: 2.40

The second four-runner contest and this one, a mares’ novices hurdle, looks more straightforward. Essentially, Too Generous has shown a much higher level of form to date. She does have a good bit more weight to carry here, and not all mares can carry weight, and there are a couple of interesting types in opposition despite the short field. In all probability though, she’ll win.

I’m tempted to add Hernello, on her first run for Charlie Longsdon (though I suspect she’s a future handicap project), and  Richard Rowe’s Grace And Fortune who had excuses before running a smasher last time at huge odds. They’ll make C if funds allow.

A – 2 C – 3, 4

Race 5: 3.10

A trappy affair indeed. Six runners in a handicap chase, and all six have finished first or second in one or both of their last two starts.

No No Bingo will try to make all, and has much in his favour, except that this represents a step up in class, officially at least. He’s A material from a box-ticking perspective, but there is a requirement for more than a single line here. The perennial best man (six second places in his last seven starts), Midnight Sail, ought to go close again and he’s on A too.

B tickets are employed here, with the fairly handicapped Simply Wings and the ultra-consistent Delgany Gunner joining the party there.

If still going here, insurance can be bought by making a reverse exact / forecast on the remaining two runners.

A – 2, 5 B – 3, 6

Race 6: 3.40

A competitive handicap hurdle, with three places to aim at here, and the binary horse – Award Winner – may be under-rated. He’s won three of his last six, on deep ground and over a trip, and has Tony McCoy shovelling on the coals again today aboard this nine-time winner. 8/1 looks pretty big to me, and he’s A stuff.

Tidal Dance is unexposed, and is looking to add a gold to two silvers and two bronzes in four career starts thus far. As favourite, he must be on A. And I’m chucking in the well-backed Virginia Ash as well, also on A.

A – 2, 4, 6

Let’s hope this mob returns a few bob. 🙂

Basic Version, A’s only

1 x 2 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 3 = 12 bets

Basic Version, A’s and B’s

1 x 4 x 3 x 1 x 4 x 3 = 144 bets

Advanced Version, using ticket builder

Monday Placepot: Plumpton