Stat of the Day, 15th January 2013
No play yesterday as Club House was declared a non-runner. This horse seems interesting, so I’ll be looking for him next time out. A tricky day today with very heavy ground at both the NH meetings (Ffos Las & Lingfield). I had an E/W bet in mind on Rosoff in the 2.00 Lingfield, but doubts over the quality of the track (still covered as I wrote this!) have sent me scurrying back to the All-Weather again!
There is, of course an A/W Junior Bumper at Lingfield, but Dunstall Park is the main focus of any All-Weather action today, so that’s where we’re going. Our race is a twelve-runner, Class 5 Maiden over a mile and a half, the…
A Class 5 Maiden on a Tuesday afternoon on the Wolverhampton polytrack won’t be everyone’s first choice as a betting medium, but I believe we’ve an angle that could well prove profitable, as Jeremy Noseda’s record in maiden events here has been exceptional in recent years.
In fact, in the last five years, Jeremy has sent 38 horses out to compete in these maiden events at the Dunstall Park track and sixteen of them have returned as winners with a further ten runners making the frame. His win strike rate of 42.1% has generated 24pts profit at level stakes (=89.5% POI), whilst E/W backers have enjoyed a profitable return of 29.6pts, courtesy of the 68.4% place strike rate. This place strike rate, whilst impressive over a five-year period has actually improved to a staggering 76.2% in the last two years, whilst Jeremy has maintained his 42% win ratio.
No prizes for guessing that Mr Noseda has just one runner today, in the form of Shirazz.
Shirazz is an interesting newcomer and makes her belated debut at the age of four. Whilst her dam wasn’t rated as anything special, her breeding tends to suggest that this middle distance type of trip will be her forté. She’s a half-sister to the 5yr old Peachez who has scored 3 wins and 4 places from 8 races at today’s trip and also won twice (plus a place) here at Wolverhampton, so our selection is expected to take to the surface quite readily.
Apprentice Amy Scott (5lb claimer) takes the ride today and she has also ridden Peachez to good effect in the past (3 wins and 6 further places from 13).
All this is, of course, pure conjecture, as nobody really knows which way this one will go on debut, but the breeding ( also related to several USA winners) and the trainers’ stats tend to suggest we’ll at least get a decent run for our money and that an E/W bet wouldn’t be an unreasonable thing to suggest.
At 10.15am, the markets were showing her at anything between 7/1 BOG and 12/1 (non-BOG). So, my play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Shirazz at 11/1 BOG with BetVictor. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to…