Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2013

SotD : 22/01/13

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2013

Not much of a run from Sohcahtoa, who couldn’t really get into it off a slow pace. Onwards, and we’ll head to the Lingfield polytrack this afternoon and a basement affair, the…

2.25 Lingfield

David Evans’ record at ‘Leafy’ is no better than moderate with around a 10% strike rate and a large enough loss on stakes for blind backers. But one of his trio of runners today – Sudden Wish – has a pretty consistent CV on the Surrey circuit.

In six spins, she’s notched figures of 613633, and in races of seven furlongs or a mile (today’s trip a mile), she’s 13633. So yes, just the one win, but an 80% place strike rate is grand in the context of this race, with plenty of her opponents either out of form or past their best.

Sudden Wish’s record at a mile in AW handicaps is 336338, and she’s always been 5/1 or shorter in those runs. That we can get more than double those odds today reflects the inherent recency bias in the market (I hope!), and she’s been chalked up at 12/1.

Our lass is ridden by Tom McLaughlin today, and he’s actually profitable to follow blindly in 4yo+ races here on the AW. Sudden Wish is visored for the first time, and if that elicits any improvement whatsoever, she ought to run well. At the very least, we can expect her usual game effort (in the frame in seven of her eleven handicap starts).

Each way clearly the play, best odds guaranteed too, and that 12/1 is currently available with bet365, Stan James, totesport, and William Hill. To check the current status quo…