Stat of the Day, 24th January 2013
We’re going to take a trip back in time today to find a selection running in a one-mile, six-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap this afternoon as we tackle the…
On 14th January, I selected Club House for SotD to compete over the same course & distance as today, but he was withdrawn from the race. He’d won back to back Class 4 C&D handicaps (same conditions as today) and although the race 10 days ago would have been a drop to Class 5: he is more than handy at this level.
The full reasoning behind the pick last time is right here.
Little has changed from the stats posted that day: the horse hasn’t run since, it’s the same course & distance and it’s a handicap. There is one less runner and the contest is back at Class 4, but he does have form at this level.
The trainer Robert Mills has only had one entry at Lingfield in the last ten days and although that runner was unplaced, his course stats are still impressive. He stands at 10 winners and 9 further places from 32 over the last year and the win profits are just shy of 18pts. The promising Robert Tart (7lb claimer) retains the ride today and will be looking to improve on his already-excellent 435 strike rate on the Lingfield A/W surface.
The step back to Class 4 from our original selection has been reflected in the price, which I expected to be around the 9/2 (or lower) mark. At 1030, one could argue that a safety-first E/W bet could work with the 5/1 BOG on offer, but fortune favours the brave or so they say. In which case I’m going to plat as a 1pt win bet on Club House at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor.
Stan James are currently offering the same price and you can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to…