Stat of the Day, 2nd February 2013
Another second placed finish yesterday, as Sun Cloud battled in vain to catch the winner in an attritional contest in the mud. We secured a small profit on the day to start february off on the right track and we’ll look to build on that with a trip to Esher in Surrey.
Our contest today is the opening race on the card, as a decent looking field of nine runners are set to take on a Class 2, two-mile, handicap chase on heavy ground (soft in the back straight) in the…
Today’s card at Sandown is an all chase affair and when it comes to these chase contests here, Alan King has been the go to man in recent years. His record in the last two years reads 19821511P2, giving him a 40% win and 60% place strike rate in that time. The win bets alone have yielded 5.75pts profit at SP (57.5% POI).
Today’s contest is a handicap affair and that good record of Alan’s is virtually replicated with a form line of 982111P, giving a win strike rate of almost 43% for 5.25pts profit (75% POI) and E/W backers have seen a return in over 57% of the races.
In true SotD fashion, Alan King has just the one runner here today: Oh Crick.
Oh Crick is a decent handicap chaser on his day and made a good enough start to the season, finishing sixth in a pipe opener at Cheltenham, before running a very creditable second at Newbury in December, where he finished just four lengths behind Ulck du Lin ( who has subsequently won again), despite conceding a stone in weight to the winner. He is now only a pound higher than that Newbury run and a repeat of that level of performance should see him go close today.
Overall Oh Crick has a pretty decent strike of 22% wins and 39% places (8 wins and 6 places from 36) and backing him blindly has yielded 6.6pts profit (18.33%), whilst E/W backers have made almost 9pts. Admittedly not earth-shattering returns, but there aren’t many horses out there showing a profit from blind backing over 36 races!
He does seem to go well at this time of year, though. His record in the month of February reads 11241, making 12pts for his backers and 15.4pts for E/W bets.
All this in mind, I’d have had him at around the 7/1 to 8/1 mark, but a poor run last time out coupled with him being weighted higher than he’s ever won at (a claimer helps redress that, though!) means there’s a bit more juice in the odds and today I’m suggesting a 0.5pts E/W bet on Oh Crick at 11/1 BOG with BetVictor. This 11/1 was the best around at 1030, Bet365, 888sport and Blue Square were all offering 10/1, but you really should…