Stat of the Day, 12th February 2013
No good with Mountain Range yesterday, and it’s quickly on to the West Coast of Scotland, and a horse for a course in the…
Donald McCain is the man to follow at Ayr, having struck at an impressive 29% from 95 runners over the past five seasons. Those 28 winners were worth a marginal profit of 9.79 units, but it’s his chasers which really excel here.
Indeed, ‘son of Ginger’ has saddled 30 chasers, of which eleven have won, for a profit of 20.49 units, or 68% ROI.
McCain has three runners at the Scottish track this afternoon, but only the one in a chase race. And that fellow is recent SotD selection, Storming Exit. He was having his second race after a long layoff when nominated here, and almost certainly ‘bounced’ (that is, was feeling the exertions of his previous effort and couldn’t ‘do a full shift’).
It’s quite common for a horse to bounce after a hard first run off a break, and they normally come back fine after that. Assuming Storming Exit is ready for battle – and I don’t think he’d be running if he wasn’t – then today’s conditions are plum.
He’s won twice on heavy ground like today’s; three times at today’s two and a half mile trip; twice over this course and distance; once in this class (and once in a class above); and he’s back to his last winning handicap mark of 125.
Storming Exit has been placed in five of his six runs in fields of nine or less, so in today’s nine runner contest, he must have an excellent each way chance.
He’s 7/1 BOG with BetVictor, Coral and William Hill, and each way the cowards’ route will do for me.