Sat TV Trends: 16th Feb 2013

Can Silver By Nature Win Another GN Trial?

Another busy Saturday with LIVE C4 action from Haydock, Wincanton and Ascot – Andy Newton’s on hand with all the trends and stats that matter……

ASCOT (ATR/C4)

2.05 – Sodexo Prestige Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase Grade 2 3m

10/10 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old (50% each)
10/10 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
10/10 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/10 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
6/10 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner)
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Winners that went onto finish 5^th or better in the RSA Chase
5/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/10 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/4

Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park

2.40 – Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Chase Limited Handicap (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3M

Only 2 previous runnings
2/2 – Aged in double-figures
2/2 – Carried 10-13 or less
0/2 – Winning favourites
Kim Bailey is 3 from 6 with his chasers here
Venetia Williams is just 1 from 29 with her chasers here
Nigel Twiston-Davies is only 1 from 32 with his chasers here
Timmy Murphy is just 1 from 19 riding over fences at the track

3.15 – Betfair. Don´t Settle For Less Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2M3F

7/7 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
6/7 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
6/7 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/7 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/7 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
5/7- Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/7 – Priced 9/1 or bigger
4/7 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
4/7 – Placed favourites
4/7 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
3/7 – Irish bred
3/7 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/7 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
2/7 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
2/7 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/7 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8.6/1

3.50 – Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 2m5f

10/10 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
10/10 – Won over at least 2 ½ (fences) previously
9/10 – Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
8/10 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
8/10 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
8/10 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
6/10 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
6/10 – Favourites that won
6/10 – Officially rated 158 or higher
5/10 – Unplaced in their latest race
4/10 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
3/10 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
3/10 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (no winners) later that season
3/10 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
1/10 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 4/1

Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park

HAYDOCK (RUK/C4)

2.20 – Betfred Mobile Lotto Hurdle (Registered As The Rendlesham Hurdle) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3M

10/10 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
8/10 – Aged 8 or younger
8/10 – Rated 145 or higher
8/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
8/10 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
6/10 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
6/10 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
6/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
5/10 – French-bred
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Had run at Haydock before
2/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
1/10 – Winning favourites
1/10 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Restless Harry won the race 12 months ago
Cross Kennon won the race in 2011
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4.8/1

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 – Run at Kempton Park

2.55 – Betfred Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4F

10/10 – Won by a UK-based stable
10/10 – Won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) previously
9/10 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/10 – Placed in the top three last time in their last race
8/10 – Won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) previously
8/10 – Placed in the top two in their last race
8/10 – Winner that came from outside the top 3 in the market
8/10 – Won by a horse aged 10 or younger
8/10 – Officially rated 135 or higher
8/10 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
7/10 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
7/10 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
7/10 – Returned a double-figure price
6/10 – Winners that went onto run in the Grand National that season (all unplaced)
5/10 – Favourites unplaced
4/10 – Winning distance – exactly 15 lengths
4/10 – Raced in the Welsh Grand National last time out
4/10 – Irish-bred winners
4/10 – Won their latest race
3/10 – Placed 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National that season
3/10 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/10 – Won by the Lucinda Russell stable
1/10 – Favourites
Lucinda Russell’s Silver By Nature won the race in 2010 & 2011
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1
The 2012 Grand National winner, Neptune Collonges, was second 12 months ago
The 2009 Grand National winner, Mon Mome, was placed seventh in this race in 2009

WINCANTON (RUK/C4)

3.35 – Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle Grade 2 2M

9/9 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/9 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
8/9 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
8/9 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
7/9 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
7/9 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Rated 155 or higher
5/9 – Winning favourites
5/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/9 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/9 – Trained by Alan King
1/10 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 3/1

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays