Stat of the Day, 16th February 2013
First of all, I want to publicly wish my dad a happy 75th birthday today. The old man’s my inspiration and my hero, and all this can be traced back to the things he instilled in me 🙂
Onwards, and after a wishy-washy week, saved by a 9/1 winner, it’s time to at least get a run for our money this afternoon. I think I’ve found a vehicle to serve that purpose in the big race down in the south west, the…
Six runners go to post, but perhaps only three or four have a realistic chance. There’s a legitimate odds on favourite in the race in the shape of Zarkandar, but I’m going to take him on – in part at least – with stable mate, Celestial Halo.
This nine-year-old gelding has been a star of the hurdling world for a long time now, and his record is exceptional. In truth, he’s just a touch shy of top class, which is perhaps why his record reads so well in the context of today’s Grade 2 affair. Indeed, in ten runs in such company, he’s been placed nine times. The form string reads 2123321112. (one of the 3’s was in a five runner race).
On heavy ground, he’s one from one; he’s been placed six times in eight attempts at the two mile trip, winning three; and his form at Wincanton reads 1212 (both 2’s in this race).
Zarkandar figures to be a formidable opponent, however, and today I’m going to include him in my calculations. The wager then will be a 65/35 reverse forecast (note, not exacta – these small fields invariably pay under the odds) Zarkandar and Celestial Halo.
That is, if your normal stake is £10, play £6.50 Zarkandar to beat Celestial Halo and £3.50 Celestial Halo to beat Zarkandar. The former should pay around 7/2 and the latter around 6/1, or thereabouts.