Stat of the Day, 24th February 2013
Two serious errors put paid to any chance of a winning return for Nacarat yesterday. A bad blunder at the seventh was bad enough, but he’d hauled himself back into contention before another grave mistake at the 14th pretty much ended his (and ours!) chances.
A little uncertainty surrounds Sunday’s racing with inspections planned due to the impending overnight chill. Unfortunately I’m leaving the house at 6am, so whilst I type this, I’m unsure whether the UK meetings will go ahead or not. Should the call go our way, we’re going to tackle a 3 mile, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle in the Northamptonshire countryside. We’re expecting the ground to be Soft, but better in places for the fifteen runners scheduled to line up for the…
To be quite honest, there’s not a great deal jumping out at me for today’s action, but I did notice that whilst Peter Pritchard doesn’t actually train that many winners, he has a decent enough ratio of horses making the frame here at Towcester. In fact, during the last four winter campaigns (since October 2009), he has managed to get sixteen of his forty-three entrants to finish inside the places. Despite 37.2% not being a world-beating number, it’s still a very healthy position.
His sole entrant today, Earcomesthedream, is no stranger to this track either, having raced here some seventeen times in the last six years and finishing in the first four on ten occasions.
Earcomesthedream stays the trip having won over today’s 3 miles and also has victories at 3m1f and 3m 2f. Any cut in the ground shouldn’t be an issue either, as he has proven himself on both Soft and Good to Soft ground in the past.
He is a resilient stayer and he gained his second Towcester win when landing another Class 5 Handicap over course and distance (good to soft) back in December. His form has been a little patchy since then, but he ran well enough on hs last hurdles outing at Chepstow to suggest he’s still got another decent performance or two left in the tank for the season. It wouldn’t be too unfair to dismiss his poor show last time out, as he was clearly unsuited by an A/W bumper race at Wolverhampton.
He doesn’t seem to be overburdened at the weights, but does admittedly carry another 5lb more than that last C&D victory. His recent sketchy performances and this rise in the weights have been reflected in the opening shows, leaving me to take the option of a 0.5pt E/W bet on Earcomesthedream at 8/1 BOG with bet365. As I write this, most firms haven’t made their position clear, so it might be best to…