Stat of the Day, 25th February 2013
If ever there was a metaphorical slap in the face, we got one yesterday. The only thing Earcomesthedream possibly did wrong was that he set off for home a little too early. He attempted to cling on gamely as a pack of four hunted him down. As they came over the last, he really could still have finished anywhere in the first five. Unfortunately for us, he didn’t have enough in the tank to hold on and we didn’t even get an E/W payout as he was finally placed 4th.
It’s back to A/W action today and a trip to Dunstall Park for their opener. This is now an 11-runner (one N/R this morning), Class 5 handicap over a shade (20yds) further than five furlongs for the…
Since teaming up for the first time just under 10 months ago (with a 7/1 winner at Haydock), the trainer/jockey partnership of Paul Green and Joe Fanning has not only proved successful in terms of wins and places, but also from a financial aspect.
Six winners and four other places from twenty runners in ten months is excellent form indeed. The 30% strike rate has produced an amazing 35.5pts (+177.5% POI) profit, whilst a place ratio of 1 in 2 has seen E/W backers rewarded to the tune of 50pts (+125%).
They arrive here today for just one combined ride seeking a third win on the bounce and all with the same horse: M J Woodward.
M J Woodward has a career record of seven wins at 5f to 6f, including six wins on A/W tracks (1411 here since dropping down from 7f to today’s 5f). He has made massive progress this winter and is a plucky battling sort who always seems to find just enough. He completed a hat trick at Southwell (6f) last time out when taking his recent run of form to 5 wins from 7 and I fully expect him to be on the premises again today.
He is actually up 4 lbs for that last win, but despite this he hasn’t been overhandicapped this season, because he never seems to win by much (usually by half a length or less!): just seeming to know what’s required and doing just enough.
The rise in the weights allied to his propensity to do just enough might well cause some concerns, but we’re going to get him at a longer price than usual, and considering that BetVictor are showing him at 6/1 BOG this morning (10.30am), the sensible (if a little conservative) option is to take a 0.5pts E/W bet on M J Woodward at those prices, but you can (and should!) always…