Stat of the Day, 28th February 2013
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and hindsight now suggests that yesterday’s selection Alnoomaas was an excellent E/W bet at the advised 8/1. Unfortunately, partially down to a desire to make up a shortfall for the month and also due to my confidence in the pick, we’d gone win only on this one. The horse did indeed revert back to front running and led for most of the race, but was finally caught and passed by the flying favourite at the death. The end result: 2nd by a length!
SotD is staying put today for another Class 5 handicap, but this one has ten runners tackling seven furlongs for the…
Today is another piece all about the horse, rather than the trainer or jockey. It’s a horse who is very experienced with no less than 77 races under his belt over the last 7 years.
Ocean Legend is today’s selection and whilst his form over the last few years leaves a little to be desired, there’s every possibility that today’s conditions will be just right for him. Since the turn of 2010, he has won six times from forty-two starts. This is a decent enough strike rate (14.3%) as a starting point, but level stakes losses of 3pts means that we need more reasons to back him today.
It then turns out that all six wins in that timeframe have come here at Kempton from 19 races (31.6% strike rate for +20pts) and all six were over today’s course and distance. His record over C&D since the start of 2010 shows six wins and two places from sixteen races. This excellent 37.5% strike rate has generated profits of 23pts at SP (+143.75%) and E/W backers have collected on 50% of the races to the tune of 24.6pts.
Today’s contest is a Class 5 event and Ocean Legend has won all four previous Class 5 C&D races since 2010, making 21pts in the process.
He seems to have been given a decent mark to work from today, as he drops back in Class. He had been running in Class 3 & 4 races, before taking a break over the winter. He reappeared here at Kempton for another Class 4 contest a fortnight ago and should be better for having that run under his belt. He is running off a mark of 73 today, he last won off 77 and he has actually won off a mark as high as 80, so if he’s up for it today, he really does have every chance.
Just like yesterday, I believe that today’s race is there to be won. And the early markets show our pick at 11/2 joint 2nd favourite alongside my friend’s horse Avonmore Star. My call today is a 1pt win bet on Ocean Legend at 11/2 BOG with Bet 365 (same price is available with BetVictor and SkyBet, who are non-BOG though), but to take your own pick of the bookies…