Stat of the Day, 5th March 2013
A “nearly” day yesterday, as Irene Kennet just couldn’t land the telling blow late on and we had to settle for a place. She looked to have every chance inside the last furlong, but couldn’t go with the eventual winner, finishing 3rd after all. Fortunately we’d gone E/W, but unfortunately a couple of withdrawals meant a fairly large Rule 4 deduction and our final outcome was a profit of 0.11pts. Still, an 11% POI is better than nothing, not that I enjoy backing 1/9 shots generally!
Haldon Hill in Devon is our port of call today for a 19-runner (yes, 19!) Class 4 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f on Good ground in today’s…
Trainer Jeremy Scott has an excellent recent record in handicap contests here at Exeter: since the start of 2011 he has scored 7 wins and 5 places from just 17 runners. A win strike rate of 41.2% and a place rate of 70.6% have produced level stakes profits of 21.6pts (+127%) and 34.4pts (+101%) respectively, making all Jeremy’s Exeter handicappers of immediate interest.
The bulk of those runners have competed in hurdle races and whilst not quite living up to those great results, they are still very commendable indeed. His handicap hurdle record reads 5 wins (41.7%) and 4 places (75% in total) from 12 races, generating profits of 10.63pts (+88.6%) and 18.91pts (+78.8%). His chase returns are slightly better, but five races is too small a sample size for my liking.
Jeremy has two entrants today: Pericoloso looks to have a stiff test in the Devon National at 3.30, but Mr Scott won that race last year with Clash Duff and Pericoloso may well grab a place at a decent price (currently 20/1). However, Jeremy seems to have a better chance in the preceding race, one he also won last year and in 2010 (no entry in 2011!) with last year’s winner Josh’s Dreamaway.
Josh’s Dreamaway is 1/1 here at Exeter and over C&D, courtesy of last year’s victory in this race. She’s 2/2 over today’s 2m 3f trip and she’s also 4/6 on good ground.
She does, however, race some 13lbs higher than last year’s race, so we’ll expect a much longer price than her returned SP of 4/1 a year ago. She was lowered by 2lbs after a decent run at Taunton in December, finishing 6th in a race where four of the horses in front of her have run again since to good effect (3 have won races and the other has been placed twice). And I’m not sure she was entirely at home on the heavy surface hat day either.
Josh’s Dreamaway should come here fit and fresh after a pipe opener in a jumpers bumper at Wolverhampton, where she was only beaten by less than half a length.
The extra weight is a concern today, but both trainer and horse have form here at Exeter and form in this particular race to boot. Our jockey has a 3lb claim today, which might make all the difference and today’s bet is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Josh’s Dreamaway at 9/1 BOG with BetVictor (William Hill also offer 9/1), but you can always…