Stat of the Day, 7th March 2013
It was pretty much a no-show from D’Gigi yesterday as she came home last of the six finishers in an eight-runner race. She was held up during the race, made a mistake at the 9th hurdle and then folded tamely to end up around 95 lengths off the winner, 74 lengths off a place and still over 40 lengths away from any other horse!
Today we’re returning to the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for a Class 5 Handicap over seven furlongs for the ten runners in the…
SotD has a bit of a deja vu feeling to it today, as we turn the clock back a little to look at a course & distance specialist.
Back on the 10th February, I put Flying Pickets up for consideration, based on a 5/15 (+16.33pts) record here at Southwell and 5/8 record over course and distance.
Flying Pickets was the runner-up that day, finishing strongly despite having to do too much to get on terms. He’d encountered plenty of traffic that day and didn’t quite catch the leader, but was gaining with every stride.
He was then turned straight back out two days later and won over this same C&D and since then he’s only raced once (7 days later), when he finished 4th over C&D, but he had stepped up to Class 4 racing for that one. This brought his overall record over C&D to 21112141214: 6 wins and 3 places from 11 attempts and never out of the first four home.
Backing Flying Pickets blindly over 7 furlongs here would have given you 31.13pts (+283%) profit at SP and 46.05pts at Betfair SP (+418%), whilst E/W backers would have benefited on nine occasions to the tune of 40.6pts (+193%)
It must however be noted that all his wins here have been in non-handicap company and he’ll find this a little tougher than usual, but he did beat Alpha Tauri and Rio Cobolo over track and trip in November and when I put him up last time he finished just behind Bitaphon and they look closely matched on today’s terms, so if he can avoid the traffic a bit better today, there’s no reason why he can’t go close at a decent price.
The step back into handicap company and his record in those events is reflected in the prices available. There’s not much liquidity in the exchange markets yet, but odds of around 11.5 are available. The conventional bookies are generally offering 9/1 BOG, so the “official” SotD line is 0.5pts on Flying Pickets at 9/1 E/W BOG. You can take your pick of the bookies and to do so, simply…