Well I Declare : 13th March 2013

Well I Declare: 13th March

Well I Declare: 13th March

Today is Day 2 of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival and we’ve full details of today’s races from Prestbury Park, as well as the action scheduled for Huntingdon, Kempton and Southwell on…


Cheltenham Day 2:

1.30–4 mile NH Chase: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests whilst just three favourites have prevailed in the last eighteen years.  Horses in the first three in the betting have a poor record in the race.  Fifty four relevant horses have lined up during the study period producing six winners and ten place positions, leaving thirty-eight representatives finishing out with the washing.

2.05–2 mile 5 furlong Grade 1 ‘Baring Bingham (Neptune)’: Five and six-year-olds have secured sixteen of the last eighteen renewals of this event, securing an additional thirty-one toteplacepot positions for good measure.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having secured four of the last six renewals.  Six favourites have won during the period though the figure only extends to nine when taking the first three market leaders into account.

2.40–RSA Chase: Seven-year-olds rule supreme in the ‘Sun Alliance’ having won thirteen of the last eighteen contests.  Vintage representative has secured an additional sixteen toteplacepot positions down the years for good measure.  Only five favourites have won during the study period and just eight when extending the stats by taking the first three horses in the betting into account in the relevant races.  Irish runners have won three of the last four contests, whilst Willie Mullins has trained two winners and two placed horses during the last decade via fifteen representatives.

3.20–Queen Mother Champion Chase: Ten of the last thirteen winners of the ‘Queen Mother’ have emerged from the front three horses in the betting, whilst five favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals.  If you fancy taking Sprinter Scare on, it’s worth noting that nine-year-olds come into the contest on a four timer. To pour further fuel on the potential flames, Sprinter Sacre is attempting to become only the fourth seven-year-old winner since 1970, the last relevant gold medallist being Azertyuiop back in 2004.

4.00–Coral Cup: Ten of the last twelve winners of the Coral Cup have carried weights of eleven stones or less whilst just one favourite has scored since 1993.  Only four winners have emerged during the period from the front three horses in the market during the study period.  Five-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals.

4.40–’Fred Winter’: Two favourites have won via just eight renewals, though readers should be aware that other gold medallists have prevailed at odds of 40/1-40/1-20/1-14/1-11/1-9/1.  Seven of the eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4, whilst fillies have secured half of the contests thus far.

5.15–’Championship Bumper’: Five-year-olds have secured six renewals during the last decade.  The market used to be a decent guide but it is as well to digest the fact that seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite was successful, recent winners having scored at 40/1-33/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-11/2-9/2.  Willie Mullins has saddled seven of Ireland’s fourteen winners in race which only has twenty renewals to its name.




Number of races at Huntingdon: 28

Favourite stats: 8 (28.6%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5


Trainers of winners at Huntingdon in 2013:

6–N. Henderson (4/9*-4/7*-11/10*-11/10*-3/1-15/8)

2–Kim Bailey (8/1 & 7/1)

2–Henry Daly (10/1 & 9/1)

2–Paul Nicholls (4/5* & 4/9*)

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2–Richard Phillips (8/1 & 16/1)

2–Oliver Sherwood (7/2 & 11/2)

1–David Arbuthnot (6/1)

1–Caroline Bailey (6/1)

1–Chris Down (25/1)

1–Warren Greatrex (5/1)

1–Diana Grissell (5/2*)

1–Martin Keighley (6/1)

1–Gary Moore (12/1)

1–John O’Neill (22/1)

1–A.E. Price (5/1)

1–T. Symonds (8/1)

1–Venetia Williams (9/2)

1–P. York (11/8*)

24/28 winners were sent off at odds of 10/1 or less


Trainers of beaten favourites:

3–Philip Hobbs (5/2-4/1-11/4)

3–Jonjo O’Neill (3/1-10/3-7/2)

3–Venetia Williams (11/4-5/2-7/2)

1–Roger Curtis (9/2)

1–Vic Dartnall (9/2)

1–John Ferguson (4/5)

1–Tom George (13/8)

1–Lawney Hill (7/2)

1–Brendan Powell (9/2**)

1–Jeremy Scott (9/2**)

1–Oliver Sherwood (3/1**)

1–Pam Sly (7/2)

1–Colin Tizzard (4/1)

1–Bill Turner (13/8)

1–Tim Vaughan (3/1**)

1–Lucy Wadham (4/1**)

1–Nick Williams (4/1**)

Three mile handicap chase scheduled to be contested at 2.55: Just one clear and one co favourite has scored via eight renewals.  Other gold medallists were sent off at 25/1–20/1–16/1–10/1–8/1–7/2.  Four of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.  It’s worth noting that the toteplacepot pools for the other meetings during Cheltenham Festival week also take a hike if you are interested in the wager.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35: Six-year-olds have secured three of the five contests.

Three and a quarter-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Nine of the last ten winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst the same number of gold medallists started at odds of 7/1 or less (two winning favourites).

Four-year-olds come into the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.30) on a five timer.  Five favourites have scored during the last decade albeit, gold medallists have also prevailed at odds of 100/1 & 22/1.



Jockey John Fahy boasts an LSP figure of over sixty points at Kempton which should come as no great surprise to readers, given that 26% of John’s (119) winners during the last five years have been gained at this venue.



It would be typical of David Nicholls to saddle winners when the majority of punters were ‘looking the other way’ this week and his one hundred and sixty points of level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years merits plenty of consideration.

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