Well I Declare : 14th March 2013

Well I Declare: 14th March

Well I Declare: 14th March

So, we’re already at the midway point of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival, but there’s another day of top-class action scheduled today. We’ve all the details of those races alongside the meetings planned for Hexham, Towcester and Wolverhampton on…

…THURSDAY 14/03:

Cheltenham Day 3:

1.30–’Jewson’ Novice Chase: An exceptionally ‘good NH judge’ expects a first-rate showing from Third Intention in this event, though as expressed on Sunday evening, ‘Joe’ was less than happy at the decision for Dynaste to contest this event rather than the RSA which had seemingly been the target not so long so.  Colin Tizzard’s raider should still reward each way investors with a decent run for their collective monies however.

2.05–‘Pertemps Final’: The last nine favourites have been beaten with just one market leader finishing in the frame.  Going back further in time, only one favourite has prevailed during the last sixteen years, whilst seven of the last nine gold medallists carried weights of 10-9 or less as have twenty-six of the thirty-six horses to have secured toteplacepot/each way positions during the period.  Only one five-year-old winner has been recorded in the last thirty-eight years.  Cape Tribulation was the third eight-year-old winner twelve months ago via the last six renewals.  David Pipe has saddled two of the last three winners, albeit Buena Vista won both events.

2.40–Ryanair Chase: Albertas Run has two gold and one silver medal to his name in this race though the ground (best on a sound surface) might have gone against him this time around.  Only two favourites have prevailed via eight contests though that said, seven of the winners scored at odds of 6/1 or less. Twenty four Irish raiders have tried and failed to win this contest.  Nicky Henderson (responsible for both successful favourites), Jonjo O’Neill and Paul Nicholls all have two winners to their name, the other successful trainers being David Pipe and Nigel Twiston-Davies.

3.20–World Hurdle: Eight favourites have won via the last eighteen contests during which time, thirteen gold medallists emerged from the front three horses in the betting.  The biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at 8/1.  Get Me Out Of Here has finished runner-up in all three Cheltenham Festival assignments thus far.  Beaten a head in the ‘Supreme’ in 2010, GMOOH fell victim to a minimum margin defeat (nose) twelve months later (County Hurdle) before securing the silver medal again in the ultra competitive Coral Cup last year.  If any horses deserves to score at the Cheltenham Festival this year, Get Me Out Of Here is the beast!

4.00–Grade 3 Byrne Group Plate:  Last year’s successful market leader was only the second favourite to oblige during the last twenty-nine years.  Although eight-year-olds have ‘only’ won four of the last fourteen renewals, vintage representatives have secured twenty-three of the last forty-three available toteplacepot/each way positions.  Horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-10 have won eight of the last ten renewals.

4.40–’Kim Muir’ Chase: Nine-year-olds have won nine of the last fourteen contests whilst claiming twenty-one of the last available forty-eight toteplacepot/each way positions.  Twelve of the last fifteen renewals have been secured by horses carrying 10-13 or more, as have thirty-four of the last forty-seven available toteplacepot positions.  Ferdy Murphy’s Cheltenham record with his outsiders stands up almost as well as any other trainer, especially if you take the Nicky Henderson out of the equation.  Riguez Dancer could go well at rewarding odds, whilst other stable representatives this week to keep on a back burner include Going Wrong, De Boitron and Poker Di Sivola



Class 4 novice hurdle event due to be contested at 2.55: Three of the five market leaders have prevailed (5/6-5/6-10/11), the other market leaders having secured silver medals.  Six-year-olds have won three contests whilst all five winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: Just one favourite has obliged via the last ten renewals during which time, horses carrying weights of 11-2 or less have secured eight contests.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Six of the last ten contests have been secured by market leaders, with seven-year-olds leading the eight-year-olds 5-3 during the period.  Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: The last eight winners have carried a maximum weight of eleven stones, whilst just one favourite has obliged during the last decade.



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Number of races at Towcester: 13

Favourite stats: 6 (46.2%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/4


Trainers of winners at Towcester in 2013:

2–Philip Hobbs (4/5* & 8/13*)

2–David Pipe (7/4* & 1/2*)

1–Kevin Bishop (11/2)

1–David Bridgwater (11/2)

1–Tony Carroll (9/1)

1–Claire Dyson (5/1)

1–Caroline Keevil (9/2)

1–Donald McCain (4/5*)

1–Jamie Snowdon (7/1)

1–Tim Vaughan (4/1)

1–Venetia Williams (3/1*)

All thirteen winners sent off at a top price of 9/1


Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–Kate Buckett (3/1)

1–Sarah Jane Davies (5/2)

1–Robin Duickin (9/4)

1–John Ferguson (15/8)

1–Sophie Leech (9/4)

1–Michael Roberts (11/4)

1–Richard Woolacott (11/4)

Two mile five furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Six-year-olds have secured five of the seven contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2 (four successful market leaders).

Three mile handicap chase due to be contested at 2.30: Three clear and two joint favourites have prevailed via seven renewals.

Class 4 two-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.25: Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whilst four of the last five favourites secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one winner.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 5.35: The last five winners have scored at 16/1–14/1–12/1–15/2–7/2 following the successful inaugural (5/4) market leader back in 2004.



Gerard Butler’s only two entries this week at the time of writing were at this venue, where Gerard boasts fifty-two points of level stake profits via a 24% strike rate in recent years.

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