Well I Declare : 15th March 2013

Well I Declare: 15th March

Well I Declare: 15th March

It’s the grand finale of this year’s Cheltenham Festival today and there’s aslo action at Fakenham, Lingfield and Wolverhampton on…

…FRIDAY 15/03:

Cheltenham Day 4:

1.30–Triumph Hurdle: Four of the last fourteen favourites have obliged which not a bad record considering the competitive nature of this opening event.  Nine market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.  Irish trainers have not lifted this prize since 2002, with Philip Hobbs (2/10), Paul Nicholls (2/14), Alan King (2/20) and Nicky Henderson (2/13) all having trained two winners during the study period.

2.05–County hurdle: Although backed up by only six placed representatives in the last thirteen contests, five-year-olds have won this competitive event no less than eight times during the period.  Forty of the last fifty winners hailed from the five and six-year-old vintages which should sway you towards younger horses in the contest.  Horses carrying a maximum weight of 11-1 have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals.

2.40–’Albert Bartlett’: Favourites have won three of the eight renewals whilst market leaders have secured seven toteplacepot positions.  Six-year-olds lead the seven-year-olds 4-3 to date.  Previous course winners account for half of the winners to date whilst the fill scoreboard reads: Britain: 5–Ireland: 2–France: 1.

3.20–Cheltenham Gold Cup: Six of the last ten market leaders have won the ‘Blue Riband’ with Kauto Star being a beaten favourite on two occasions.  Eight of the ten favourites finished in the frame.  Bobs Worth has won all six of his races when racing left-handed thus far, whilst his record at Cheltenham is 4/4.  The last Cheltenham Gold Cup winner to only have one outing during the season before the big race was Garrison Savannah back in 1991 who like Bobs Worth, had won the RSA Chase the previous season.  At the odds on offer at the time of writing (3/1), Bob’s Worth rates as my bet of the week.  Only the progressive Silviniaco Conti emerges as a danger from my viewpoint.

4.00–Foxhunters Chase: Three market leaders have won via the last fourteen contests, the figure increasing to seven during the period when taking the first three horses in the betting into account.  Four of the last seven winners have scored at 33/1 (twice) and 20/1 (twice).

4.40–’Martin Pipe’ Conditional: Two of the four favourites have finished in the money to date (one winner).  David Pipe has saddled two beaten favourites in the race which he is desperate to win for obvious reasons.

5.15–’Grand Annual’: Every winner during the last eleven years carried a maximum burden of 10-13, whilst eight gold medallists carried 10-7 or less.  Novices have a great record in the ‘Johnny Henderson’, whilst horses with decent each way form leading up to the race can be expected to figure prominently.  Eight renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged, whilst Nicky Henderson’s runners always demand respect in a race run in honour of his late father.  Nicky’s novice Tetlami would be my each way selection if the trainer chooses this race for his seven-year-old.




Number of races at Fakenham: 13

Favourite stats: 4 (30.8% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2


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Trainers of winners at Fakenham in 2013:

1–Mick Channon (10/11*)

1–Sean Curran (11/1)

1–Nicky Henderson (2/5*)

1–Paul Henderson (7/1)

1–Alan Hill (9/4*)

1–Lawney Hill (2/1)

1–Neil King (3/1)

1–Anabel K. Murphy (3/1)

1–David Pipe (10/1)

1–Renee Robeson (11/2)

1–Oliver Sherwood (15/2)

1–Tim Vaughan (6/5*)

1–Lucy Wadham (9/1)


Trainers of beaten favourites:

2–Alex Hales (6/4 & 11/8)

1–Mick Channon (2/1)

1–Ed Dunlop (2/1**)

1–John Ferguson (2/1**)

1–Polly Gundry (15/8)

1–Renee Robeson (11/8)

1–Oliver Sherwood (10/3)

1–David Thompson (11/10)

1–Venetia Williams (7/4)

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35 over the minimum trip: Six-year-olds have won four of the last six (and six of the last eleven) contests.  Four favourites have obliged in the last ten years.

Foxhunters event due to be contested at 4.15: Five favourites have prevailed via the last ten contests, nine winners of which started at 9/2 or less.  Nine-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 4.55: The biggest priced winner in this event via the last ten contests before last year’s 33/1 shocker was returned at just 4/1, statistics which included four successful market leaders during the last six years.  Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals.



The next potential William Jarvis runner is Laudation on this card, the trainer having saddled two gold and one silver medallist via his last three representatives.  Williams boasts an LSP reading of twenty-four points at Lingfield via an 18% strike rate during the last five years.



John Gosden held a couple of entries at Wolverhampton this week at the time of writing, with the trainer offering a 27% ratio in recent times.

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