Stat of the Day, 17th March 2013
Lá Fhéile Pádraig Sona Daoibh, hopefully I’ve got that right for our Irish readers! (Happy St. Patrick’s Day to you all!).
Grouse Lodge went well yesterday for the best part of the race, but faded badly at the business end of the three miles and so on to today’s selection, where it seems fitting that we travel over to Ireland for an 18 runner handicap hurdle. The going is decidedly heavy for the 2m 5f trip in the…
Over the last couple of years or so, the most successful trainer in handicap hurdle events here at Limerick has been Denis Hogan. Since 30/12/2011, he has been represented in such contests on a total of twelve occasions resulting in the decent return of four winners (33.33%) and two places (50% in total). These impressive strike rates have led to win profits of some 13.25 pts (+110.42% of stakes) with E/W returns of a healthy 16.12pts ( 67.17%).
Denis has one such runner today, which in fact is his only runner anywhere and he’ll be hoping to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day with a win for Missie Ella.
Missie Ella is an improving 5 yr old bay mare, who has already notched up two win and tow places from her eleven INH starts to date and she opened her hurdling account at Thurles just before Christmas in a 2m 6f slog on heavy ground. Her subsequent three races have all also been on similarly heavy ground, finishing 2nd, 3rd and 1st last time out (back at Thurles).
She is now proven on this type of ground thanks to this recent 4-race run since 23rd December and she saw out the 3m trip well when winning at Thurles last time out, just over four weeks ago.
Denis Hogan is well-known for the placing of his horses and he must think she has enough left in her tank to reappear so quickly after that last victory. Provided that race hasn’t taken too much out of her, I fancy her to go well again today, despite a 7lb hike in the weights.
It’s a large field today, with 18 runners meaning we can get 4 places for an E/W bet and with the addition of the weight penalty, this seems the most prudent course of action. Therefore, today’s call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Missie Ella at 5/1 BOG with Bet 365, but please do take the opportunity to…
P.S. 11/2 available at 10.00am with BetVictor