Stat of the Day, 27th March 2013
No joy yesterday, as Wild Ground trailed home in 5th place, some 34 lengths or so off the winner and around 20 lengths away from the places. It is quite remarkable that he finished the race at all to be honest, as his journey was littered with jumping errors. He crashed through the first fence and his jockey James Best did well just to stay on board. The mistakes eventually took its toll and our selection petered away from 2 out.
There’s not much catching my eye at Wetherby, so it’s back to the All-Weather again and today we’ll head to not-so-Leafy Lingfield for a 12-runner Class 6 handicap. The trip is six furlongs for the…
In the last few months, trainer Roger Teal has tackled handicap events here at Lingfield with a great deal of success. In the last 5 months or so during the winter campaign, five of his seventeen entrants in handicaps here have gone on to win: this impressive 28.4% strike rate producing a very healthy 24.8pts profit at SP, ie some 146% return on stakes invested.
E/W backers haven’t gone unrewarded either, as a further five of the losing dozen made the frame giving a place strike rate of 58.8% and level stakes profits of 34.13pts, a shade over doubling your money. Another such result would be welcomed today from Mr Teal’s sole runner Johnny Splash.
This 4 yr old comes here in decent nick, having only finished outside the first three home in one of his six races this year, further opening up the prospect of an E/W bet today. He has already recorded two victories at this track in 2013, the most recent being a course and distance win in a similar standard of handicap just under five weeks ago. He was subsequently raised 3lbs for that in and then didn’t shine next time out at the minimum 5f trip. He finished 5th of 5 that time, but in fairness only a length and a half covered the entire field.
He is partnered by Nathan Alison today, who will take five pounds off and this reduction allied to the step back to his favoured 6 furlongs should seriously help the cause.
There’s enough juice in the early morning price to take a cautious approach and I’ve gone for a 0.5pts E/W bet on Johnny Splash at 15/2 with BetVictor but please do take the opportunity to…
Whilst the full racecard for this race is right here.