Sat TV Trends: 30th Mar 2013

A Busy Day For C4 This Saturday……

A busy day this Saturday with nine LIVE C4 races at Doncaster, Haydock, Kempton and Musselburgh – Andy Newton’s got it all covered from a trends angle.

DONCASTER (ATR/C4)

1.55 – William Hill Spring Mile (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m

9/11 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/11 – Aged 4 years-old
9/11 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
9/11 – Carried 8-13 or more
7/11 – Won over a mile before
6/11 – Won from a double-figure draw
1/11 – Winning favourites
1/11 – Won last time out
0/11 – Won a race at Doncaster before
0/11 – Winners from stalls 3-8
The average winning SP in the last 11 renewals is 18/1
No winner aged older than 6 years-old in the last 11 years

3.05 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m

10/10 – Won between 2-4 times previously
10/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Carried 9-4 or less
9/10 – Won over at least 1m previously
8/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
8/10 – Came from stall 9 or higher
7/10 – Favourites unplaced
7/10 – Officially rated between 95-98
7/10 – Having their first run of the season
6/10 – Won by a horse aged 4 years-old
6/10 – Finished  first or second in their last race
5/10 – Came from the top 3 in the market
5/10 – Ran at either Newmarket (3) or Lingfield (2) last time out
5/10 – Returned a double figure price
4/10 – Had ran at Doncaster previously
4/10 – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/10 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/10 – Won their last race
3/10 – Favourites that won
2/10 – Ridden by Johnny Murtagh
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
2/10 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 12/1

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

HAYDOCK (RUK/C4)

2.05 – BetVictor.com Tim Molony Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-130)

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
6/6 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
6/6 – Never raced at Haydock over fences before
5/6 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
5/6 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
5/6 – Aged 8 or younger
5/6 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
4/6 – Carried 11-2 or more
4/6 – Won exactly two times over fences
3/6 – Finished first or second last time out
3/6 – Unplaced favourite
3/6 – Placed favourite
2/6 – Won by the Donald McCain stable
2/6 – Ridden by Jason Maguire
1/6 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 13/2

2.40 – BetVictor.com Handicap Hurdle (Jockey Club Grassroots Hurdle Series Final) (CLASS 2) (4yo+)

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 8 or younger
5/6 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles
5/6 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
5/6 – Placed favourites
4/6 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/6 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
4/6 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Carried 11-3 or more
4/6 – Rated 111 or higher
4/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Aged 6 years-old
3/6 – Won last time out
3/6 – Had won over at least 2 ½m (hurdles) before
2/6 – German bred
The average winning SP in the last 6 years is 15/2

3.15 – BetVictor.com Levy Board Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+)

3 previous runnings
3/3 – Carried 10-13 or more
3/3 – Rated between 132-135
3/3 – Won over at least 2 1/2m (chase) before
3/3 – Carried between 10-13 and 11-2
2/3 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
2/3 – Unplaced last time out
2/3 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
2/3-  Unplaced last time out
1/3 – One winning favourite (joint)

3.50 – BetVictor.com Handicap Chase (Jockey Club Grassroots Chase Series Final) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)

1 previous running
Brian Ellison won the race 12 months ago

KEMPTON (RUK/C4)

2.20 – BetVictor Non-Runner Free Bet At Aintree Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 6 or younger
7/7 – Had won over 1m2f before
6/7 – Unplaced last time out
5/7 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/7 – Drawn in stall 1-4
5/7 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
5/7 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/7 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
4/7 – Unplaced favourites
3/7 – Irish bred
3/7 – Had won at Kempton before
2/7 – Trained by William Haggas
2/7 – Trained by John Gosden
2/7 – Ridden by Eddie Ahern
2/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/2

2.55 – BetVictor Grand National Non-Runner Free Bet Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Qualifier) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105)

10/10 – Had won over at least 9f before
9/10 – Had won between 2-4 times before
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Rated between 89 and 99
7/10 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/10 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
7/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Unplaced favourites
6/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/10 – Aged 4 years-old
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 11.6/1

MUSSELBURGH (RUK/C4)

3.35 – totepool Royal Mile (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-100)

2 previous runnings
Both won by Richard Fahey
Richard Fahey has a 26% record with his 3 year-olds here
Mark Johnston has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Joe Fanning has a 33% (+£31) record when riding 3 year-olds here
Phillip Makin has a 22% record when riding 3 year-olds here
Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays