Stat of the Day, 1st April 2013
There was no joy for us up at Musselburgh over the weekend. Indeed, both picks ran clunkers. New month and hopefully a new turn of luck, though it remains a difficult period in the calendar.
Never mind that, we’re heading to the north east for a horse with a developing profile, in the…
This nag is the outsider of the field today, and a cursory glance at his form would support that outcast notion. But, as ever, we need to look a little closer to reveal the true beast within.
Woody Waller is a 25/1 poke here, and his recent form is 5P7. But those runs were over two and a half miles, a trip he patently doesn’t stay, and over fences.
Let’s first look at his distance record over hurdles and fences. At races within a furlong of two miles his form reads 331112225. National Hunt races of a longer distance have a form string of PP45P7 (and the ‘4’ was last of four!).
His full career record at precisely two miles reads 311222.
In other words, he doesn’t get that far. Strange then, that his last three races have been over two and a half miles (and they were also over fences). No matter, for that’s served to fatten his price without… erm, thinnening (!)… his chance.
Looking at his hurdles record, over this sort of two mile trip, we see he’s run four times with form figures of 3311.
OK, lies, damn lies, and statistics, and all that. Let’s cut to the chase. Today it’s a Class 3 two miles handicap hurdle on soft ground. Woody Waller has won on soft ground; he’s won over two miles; he’s yet to race in a Class 3 hurdle race, but was third to Walkon (rated 153 over hurdles) in a Class 2 in their respective novice seasons.
Although I can’t be confident he’ll win, I do think Woody Waller is hugely over-priced for this and represents a decent each-way wager at 25/1, best odds guaranteed with bet365.