Sat TV Trends: 6th April 2013

It’s GRAND NATIONAL Day……….

It’s the biggest day on the horse racing calendar this Saturday as Grand National fever sweeps the country – Andy Newton’s covered the big race from a trends angle, plus the other LIVE C4 races from Aintree……..

1.45 – John Smith´s Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f CH4

9/10 – Aged 5 or older
9/10 – Last race 39 days or less ago
8/10 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
7/10 – Finished in the top three last time out
7/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Ran in the Supreme (3) or Neptune (3) last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (inc last two runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
12 of the last 15 winners were fav or 2^nd fav
11 of the last 16 winners were placed 6^th or better at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

2.15 – John Smith´s Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

10/10 – Aged 8 or younger
10/10 – Came from the first 3 in the betting
10/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Last raced within the last 32 days
9/10 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
8/10 – Aged 7 or younger
8/10 – Finished in the top three last time out
6/10 – Ridden by either AP McCoy (2), Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
5/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (inc last two runnings)
0/10 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 2/1
17 of the last 18 winners ran in that season’s Arkle Chase
No Irish-trained winners since 1989
Since 1999 Paul Nicholls has trained 5 winners and 7 runners-up
 

2.50 – John Smith´s Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y CH4

9/9 – Had won or finished 2^nd at this meeting before
9/9 – Priced 11/2 or less in the betting
8/9 – Raced within the last 28 days
8/9 – Came 4^th or better in that season’s World Hurdle
7/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/9 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
5/9 – Won last time out
5/9 – Ran in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
5/9 – Winning favourite (all odds on)
4/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/9 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
0/9 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 2/1

3.25 – John Smith´s Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f CH4

9/10 – Carried 11-1 or less
8/10 – Raced within the last 35 days
7/10 – Aged 8 or older
7/10 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
6/10 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/10 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/10 – Won last time out
1/10 – Winning favourites
0/10 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1
9 of the last 16 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
14 of the last 16 winners were aged 10 or older
No Irish-trained winner in 36 renewals

4.15 – John Smith´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y CH4

Grand National Trends (Last 22 Runnings)

22/22 – Raced 55 days or less ago
21/22 – Officially rated 138 or higher
21/22 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) previously
20/22 – Won no more than 6 times over fences previously
20/22 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
17/22 – Raced 34 days or less ago
17/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
17/22 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
16/22 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
16/22 – Won between 4-6 times over fences previously
13/22 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
13/22 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
13/22 – Placed in the top 4 in their last race
13/22 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
12/22 – Favourites placed
11/22 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/22 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/22 – Raced in a previous Grand National
6/22 – Irish trained (inc 4 of the last 8 years)
5/22 – Favourites or joint favourite
4/22 – Won their last race
2/22 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/22 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
0/22 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Grand National Trends (10 Year)

10/10 – Had won over at least 3m previously
10/10 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/10 – Ran less than 50 days ago
8/10 – Officially rated 139 or higher
7/10 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
7/10 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
6/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/10 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
5/10 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/10 – Experienced on the National fences
4/10 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/10 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/10 – Won their last race
2/10 – Won by the McCain yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 25/1

Other Grand National Facts

• Only 1 horse that won at that season’s Cheltenham Festival has won since 1961
• The last 7 year-old or younger to win was in 1940
• The last horse to win with 11-6 or more was Red Rum in 1977
• 13 of the last 14 winners had won no more than once that term
• Since 1970 all winners had won over at least 3m previously
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run over hurdles earlier that season
• 18 of the last 19 winners were aged 9+
• 16 of the last 22 winners came from the first 8 in the market
• Since 1977, 102 horses have run with more than 11-5 –  just one winner – Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
• 9 of the last 12 winners were Irish bred

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays