Daily Dabble, 9th April 2013
Another Mattie was a non-runner yesterday, and Mazij – wouldn’t you know it? – got run out of the places late and finished a close up fourth at 13/2, having been friendless in the betting.
Must try harder. We’ll double up at Carlisle today, starting with the riskier of the pair in the…
Taking the third choice in a six horse race means we need one of the top two to underperform, and I think that’s entirely possible here. The favourite, Dolatulo, won a jumpers’ bumper at Southwell last time but that shouldn’t disguise the fact that he finds it very hard to win. Indeed, he’d not previously won for seventeen races! He does have some high class form, but the pick of it is all on softer than today’s good ground.
Second favourite is Drill Sergeant, another high class type making his chase debut for a trainer who is bang out of form. He might not jump well, and he might be under the McCain cloud. Or he might win. But he’s worth opposing at the price.
Which brings me, eventually, to Alta Rock, a horse which loves fast ground. His two wins have been on good and good to firm over hurdles, and he’s got the benefit of a run over the bigger obstacles. I’m pretty sure he’ll run better on quicker today, as his form on good or faster is 3011 and on slower is 6P7724. He’s around the 6/1 mark.
I’m doubling him up with …
An open looking handicap, but one horse stands out to me. Wayne Manor was a decent enough flat horse, and his three runs over hurdles so far were surely to get today’s handicap mark. He races off 100 here, but with the four year old allowance carries just 10-09, and he will be expected to fare much better than the 656 form figures he’s achieved to date.
This is his fourth run off a layoff and, combined with a half mile step up in trip (he won over two miles on the flat), he can go close. He’s around the 5/1 peg.
The win double pays 89/2 with BetFred, best odds guaranteed. The place double pays just under 5/1.
Back Alta Rock and Wayne Manor in an each way double with BetFred with the win part paying 89/2 (Best Odds Guaranteed)