Stat of the Day, 11th April 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th April 2013

Well, we got the odds on favourite beaten right enough, but not with the right horse, alas. Again, in the hunt  for value, if you can successfully eliminate a short-priced horse, you swing the market in your favour. In the long term, that means you’ll win. In the short term, we’ll pick plenty of the ‘wrong’ 10/1 shots.

Today’s offering is on the beach in Surrey. Specifically, the…

7.00 Kempton

We’re looking at a real track specialist tonight, in the burly shape of Flamborough Breeze. This lass is more akin to a Russian shot putter than a Russian prima ballerina, and she’s been in devilish form of late, too.

Indeed, in her last five starts, she’s won three and been second twice (should have won one of those, too). Her form over the Kempton mile is 3111 and, though this is a slight step up in class (Class 4, having been running in Class 5 and 6), I think she might be up to it.

She gets in here off a feather weight, because she’s up in grade, and her late running style should be suited to a race where Dubawi Island looks sure to lead and a number of others will be very close up.

Luke Morris – champion jockey, no less – does the steering, and he’s ridden her before so knows what to expect.

Because of the step up in class, and the presence of some unexposed types, she’s 8/1 BOG with Coral, and given her course record, I reckon that’s too big. Each way the play.

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.00 Kempton