Stat of the Day, 24th April 2013
We got back on the winning trail yesterday, as our 13/2 shot Chill Factor eased home at a well supported 9/2. Rachael Green gave the horse a lovely ride and the seven lengths winning margin could have been much more if she’d wanted it.
It’s a Class 6 handicap on the flat today, where 15 runners tackle the 7 furlong trip in the…
Where my selection is Bernardino, trained by David Barron.
Mr Barron’s horses have a good record in April handicaps over the shorter trips. Over the last five seasons, he has produced 17 winners from 74 April handicappers in races between five and ten furlongs. This excellent 23% strike is responsible for 76.75pts profit at level stakes = 103.7% ROI. There’s also some relief for E/W backers too, as 35 of the 74 (47.3%) have been placed generating E/W returns of 114.6pts (+77.4%).
Bernardino makes his handicap debut today after three promising but unspectacular runs, but one suspects that his trainer has him very ready for this and any market support later in the day would prove very interesting indeed. He has run all three races over 5 and 6 furlongs, so the step up is also seen as a training ploy.
It would come as no surprise to see Mr Barron pull another winner out of the bag today, his record with handicap debutants is two wins and a place from five runners, when that debut is in April, so both the trainer and I will be hoping for an improvement on that 60% place strike rate at the least.
As of 10.10am the best price available was 6/1 BOG with both Coral and Stan James. In a larger field, E/W is the safer option, so it’s a 0.5pts E/W bet on Bernardino today. For your preferred bookie, please…