Stat of the Day, 25th April 2013
No joy yesterday as Bernardino was initially kept covered up and then couldn’t go with the breakaway group at the head of the field. The end result was a disappointing 11th of 15 at 7/1, a point longer than we’d advised.
We stay in Yorkshire today for an interesting-looking Class 3 handicap, where the going is set to be Good to Firm for the seven runners tackling 7.5 furlongs in the…
It’s no great secret that the Richard Fahey horses tend to be flying at this time of year, as this trainer tends to do very well in March / April every year. His yard is in a real purple patch at present, as five winners and two places from just eight runners in the last two days alone will testify.
There, is however a subsection of his horses that tend to do even better than his usual early season successes. When he send any of his younger (ages 2 to 6) horses to compete in handicaps in March or April, they go really well in the better quality races ie classes 1 to 4.
If we are to look at his record with such horses ( disregarding any runners below 5/2, as we’re not in the business of picking horses so short for SotD!), we can see that since 2009, that record reads 37 wins from 159 races: a strike rate of 23.3% generating level stakes profits of almost 145pts, a return on stakes of over 91%. These returns are excellent for such a large sample size and the results aren’t skewed by a freakishly good year earlier either.
In fact, this season has already produced 8 winners from 26 (30.8%) for profits of 10pts (+38.5% ROI), including two winners from two on Tuesday at 11/4 and 7/2.
All this is very well and good, but we need a horse to fit the stats! And in true SotD fashion, there’s just one that fits the bill today from Mr Fahey’s twelve entrants for today: a 3 yr old bay filly by the name of Asgardella.
Asgardella was a 9/2 winner on debut over 7f last August at Ayr on similar ground to today and followed that up with a very good second place behind Waterway Run at York in September, the winner subsequently going on to Group 3 success.
Our selection then stepped up to better quality races and was by no means disgraced in her defeats in two valuable £55k & £167k) races at Newmarket before calling time on her 2yr old season.
She looks pretty well treated at the weights and will be further helped by the 3lb claim made by jockey Lee Topliss. Any repeat of her previous four runs should see her very close today and the 4/1 BOG on offer from Paddy Power looks decent enough for my 1pt win bet today. To see what the other bookies are offering, simply…