Stat of the Day, 26th April 2013
We had to settle for a second place finish yesterday in a race depleted by the late withdrawal of several of the outsiders. The bare result doesn’t tell the full story, though, if I’m honest. Asgardella never looked like winning, despite staying on well at the end. Mind you, she had to fly to get there, having looked a very tricky ride for the first three-quarters of the race. If the yard can settle this one, she’ll no doubt get back to winning ways, possibly over a longer trip than yesterday.
A bit of deja vu today as we remain in Yorkshire for another 7f handicap. It’s a Class 3 contest today and the going is good to firm for the 14 runners set to take to the stalls for the…
The deja vu feeling continues here with my choice of trainer, but I make no apology for sticking with Richard Fahey, despite his filly not doing the business yesterday. We talked yesterday about his fine form in March & April and we mentioned that his yard was in really good nick at present: both of those statements are equally relevant today, but I want to look at another subsection of his runners today.
Firstly, I want to look at Mr Fahey’s record at Doncaster this season to date: six winners and seven places from just twenty-six runners is fantastic. To achieve a 50% place strike rate is very good indeed and the 23% win strike rate is equally impressive yielding 26.33pts profit at level stakes, a profit of 101.3% over stakes invested. If we consider handicap events only, that record is improved further to 5 wins from 21 (23.8%) for 27pts profit (+128.6%).
We also talked yesterday about his younger (ie ages 2 to 6) horses competing in better quality (Classes 1 to 4) being profitable, well that obviously remains the case, but I also read that his 4 & 5 yr old horses in this category returning from a lay off of 5 months or more performed very well too: 7/18 for +21.5pts already this season.
And one final stat for you and a reasonably well-known one too: blanket backing of horses making their first appearance for the Fahey yard generates a reasonable 20% ROI.
There’s plenty to take in there, but I’ve found a horse that fits every one of those criteria! Today’s selection is therefore, It’s My Time.
It’s My Time is running in an April handicap at Doncaster, she’s a 4yr old running in a Class 3 contest coming back from a break of 158 days having switched yards during that break from David Simcock to Richard Fahey, after an admittedly modest set of six losing runs. She still runs off a reasonable mark here and the form of the new yard allied to the host of stats is good enough for inclusion here today.
As it’s a fairly large field and she’s a maiden, I am going hedge my bets (take the coward’s way out) and take a 0.5pts E/W bet on It’s My Time. I’ve settled for the 5/1 BOG on offer with BetVictor, but that price is widely available, so to see what your bookie is offering…