Stat of the Day, 27th April 2013
It was the bridesmaid role for us again yesterday, It’s My Time ran an excellent race, but just managed to find one other rival too good for her. Thankfully we’d gone E/W and the 7/1 Sp ensured that we at least made 38% profit on our total 1pt stake. Better than a poke in the eye, I say.
A change of scenery today as we head South to Lincolnshire for a Class 4 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle over 2m 1f, better know as the…
I was talking to an old friend a few weeks back about racing and stats etc and he said that he looks for Course and Distance winners running after a win last time out, so when I got back from my holiday I delved into the databases to have a look.
What I saw was that horses in this category are successful in 22% of their races here at Market Rasen and last season saw three winners from eleven such qualifiers (27.3%) returning level stakes profits of 7.25pts (65.9% ROI) and there are actually three such horses running today: Keeverfield (3.05 race) and Be My Deputy (in the 3.40) both look to have good chances today, but their odds are likely to be a bit prohibitive for us at SotD, leaving us with the one that interests me the most: Cool Baranca.
Much of the premise around SotD is that trainers and horses are creatures of habit and this also applies in bringing us to select Cool Baranca today. She won this race last year, so she’s got that C&D win under her belt and that victory came off the back off a win at Ayr. She comes here today to attempt to win this race again, also off the back of a victory in that corresponding race at Ayr.
When she took this race last year, she was running off a mark some 10lbs higher than today and despite a 4lb hike in the weights for that last win, she looks more than fairly well treated stepping back down to Class 4 racing after her recent Class 3 victory.
Bearing in mind that she took this race at an SP of 4/6 last year, we’re not getting rich today and I’d expect her to be the justified favourite in this renewal. But having expected to see her at around 5/2 this morning, I was fairly happy to see BetVictor offering 10/3, so the play is a 1pt win bet on Cool Baranca at 10/3 (BOG, of course!) with BetVictor. There were, however, only three firms with a price on the board at 8.00am, so once the market forms fully, please…