Stat of the Day, 30th April 2013
A poor run from Thunder Sheik yesterday, as he was eventually pulled up before the penultimate fence. He’d started well enough and led in the opening stages of the contest, but soon slipped back through the field before having his run curtailed prematurely. The market had it spot on as he drifted from our advised 7/2 out to an SP of 11/2.
We’re back on the flat today and we’re off to the Norfolk seaside for a 7-runner, Class 4 handicap over a mile. The going is expected to be good to firm for the…
Stat of the Day exists because racing has a habit of repeating itself year after year and today’s stat is no exception. Today is the last day of April: a notoriously difficult time of year to find winners, both as a punter and also as a “racing connection” ie it’s tough for trainers and jockeys too.
April however represents a very good time of year for the jockey / trainer partnership of Hayley Turner and Michael Bell, who have an impressive record when teaming up together.
Since the start of April 2010, Ms Turner has ridden for Mr Bell some 47 times in the month of April, winning a dozen of those races (25.5% of the time) and producing level stakes profits of 40.25pts = an ROI of some 85.6%.
These figures are impressive enough, but if we consider just handicap contests like today’s race, that record is improved upon to 8 wins from 22 (36.4%) for 46.5pts (+211.4%) profit, quite astounding. This isn’t skewed by one freakish month: in years 2010, 2011 and so far this year the strike rate has been 33% in each of those years, whilst 2012 saw a 43% winning ratio, so it’s a consistent stat at least.
There’s just one horse that fits the criteria today: George Cinq, who makes only his fourth start today. He was 6th on debut in a Newmarket maiden, before breaking his duck on the A/W track at Kempton over 7f in his second contest. He continued his progression when stepping up top Class 2 company last time out for his final Nursery outing also over 7f at Kempton. He encountered plenty of trouble in running that day, but stayed on really well in the closing stages to chase home the highly regarded Godolphin horse Tamarkuz.
Any repeat of that type of form and/or a continuance of his progress shown last term should be enough to take this contest today and I’d expect this one to be quite popular today and he’ll probably end up in the 9/4 to 5/2 region. I’d have thought.
Therefore, I was quite pleased to get a 1pt bet on George Cinq at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, but as we know prices do fluctuate, so please…
PS Sunningdale Rose will also be ridden by Hayley Turner for Michael Bell in the 2.10 race, but that’s not a handicap event.