Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2013
A well judged surge for the line from jockey Pat Dobbs got Hedge End home by half a length yesterday to clock up yet another 2yr old winner for the Hannon yard and the 7/2 SP brought us a welcome 3.5pts profit.
It was Wales yesterday and our tour takes us North to Scotland today for 5f handicap for 3 yr olds. The ground has been declared as Good (firmer in places) and we’re expecting ten runners to line up for the…
Trainer David Barron’s horses have performed really well here at Musselburgh over the last twelve months and his strike rate here in that time is two and a half times better than his overall record over the year.
In that timeframe he has saddled up 49 winners from 361 runners: a strike rate of just 13.57%, but he has managed to find five winners from fourteen (35.7%) here at Musselburgh for a level stakes profit of 14.13pts, with a return on stakes of 100.93%.
As tends to be the case with SotD, David has just the one runner today in the shape of the interesting Antonio Gramsci.
Antonio Gramsci has only raced three times in the past and makes his handicap debut today and was unlucky not to get off the mark on his debut at Ripon last summer where he ran on strongly at the death and just failed by a head to get home. That was his only outing on turf to date and has looked ill at ease in two runs on fibresand since, the latest a 5th place finish over 6f.
I’d expect a return to firmer turf and the drop back to 5f will suit him much more today and he does look to be pretty well treated on his handicap debut here, running off a mark of just 62 whilst jockey Luke McNiff will take a very useful 5lbs off too.
I think this horse has the potential to go really well today and is (in my opinion) weighted to win. That said, I’m more than happy to put my money on Antonio Gramsci at 100/30 BOG (win only, of course). Both BetVictor and Stan James are offering this price, whilst it looks like 3/1 elsewhere. So, to see what your bookie is offering…