Stat of the Day, 4th May 2013
As I’d hoped yesterday, the return to turf and a drop back in distance did the trick for Antonio Gramersci ans SotD yesterday as he ran out a comfortable 3/1 (we’d taken 100/30) winner by almost 3 lengths and he was still going away at the end after a patient hold up ride. I’ll be interested to see where he pitches up next.
Back to English soil today for the rarefied atmosphere of a Class 1 Fillies’ Listed contest over a mile and a half, where the going is set to be Good (firmer in parts) for the seven runners vying for the first prize of almost £24,000 in the…
The last couple of years have been good for Jeremy Noseda here at Goodwood with nine of his twenty-eight runners taking the honours. This 32.1% strike rate has rewarded his followers with profits of 23pts at SP: a return of 82.1% on their stakes. If those figures weren’t impressive enough: in non-handicap contests, the stats are even better: five winners from thirteen (38.5%) for 18.5pts (+142.3%) profit.
Those excellent results for 2011 & 2012 aren’t anomalies nor a flash in the pan either, Jeremy’s overall record at Goodwood since the start of 2004 reads 32/132 = 23.48%, a very healthy record, whilst at non-handicap level, the numbers look even better at 21/77, a 27.27% Strike Rate.
Mr Noseda actually has two such runners today: Burkes Rock (available at 5/1 BOG) seems to have the tougher task in the 4.05 race, also a Class 1 Fillies Listed contest, so my preference is for his runner earlier in the card: Reckoning.
Reckoning is another of those lightly raced horses that are cropping up at the moment. This filly has only raced twice before today’s encounter, after a 9/1 win on debut at Doncaster back in October 2011, she was third last time out in another Class 1 listed contest at Doncaster last November. She was by no means disgraced that day, finishing lengths than two lengths off the winner and well clear of the 4th placed horse. She was only just over a length behind Sajjhaa that day and the Godolphin mare then followed up with back to back Group 2 victories and successive Group 1 wins: all four races at Meydan this spring.
I’d expect this one to have plenty of scope for improvement and she holds an entry for the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York in 12 days time, so I assume the yard think she’s more than capable of taking this today.
So, it’s a straight forward 1pt win bet on Reckoning at 7/2 BOG for me today. That price is quite widely available, but I’ve some money in my Coral account, so I’ll be using them, but to see what your bookie is offering…