Stat of the Day, 5th May 2013
Sod’s Law struck here at SotD yesterday, as our stat was proved correct, but we backed the wrong horse. The stat isolated two runners and we went with what we felt most likely to succeed. Unfortunately Reckoning was backed in from our 7/2 to become the 9/4 fav and ran quite poorly, finishing 5th of 7. Meanwhile, stablemate Burke’s Rock drifted alarmingly from 5/1 to 12/1, before running out a fairly comfortable winner. The selection procedure was therefore vindicated, even if the bottom line doesn’t show it.
We’re off to HQ today for the final hurrah of Guineas weekend and the Class 2 Qatar Racing Handicap. This is a ten furlong contest on good to firm ground and eight runners are expected to line up for the…
I mentioned a couple of days ago that previous course & distance winners reappearing at the track having won their last race do particularly well at certain racecourses. Well, Newmarket is one such course. Runners at Newmarket who won last time out (anywhere, not just here!) and are also previous course & distance victors go on to win 15.7% of their races, giving a 23% return on investment.
And when we look at Newmarket’s more successful trainers in terms of profitability in recent years, the name of Andrew Balding often pops up. Since the start of 2009, his followers have a very creditable 61.8% return on their money, courtesy of a 21/165 record at this track. Whilst the 12.7% strike rate isn’t brilliant, the sustained returns are excellent.
So, we’re looking for a Balding handicapper running at Newmarket who won last time out and is also a Course & Distance winner! Step forward Soviet Rock.
Soviet Rock won for the first time (on his 3rd start) at York last October in a Class 4 race over a mile on heavy ground. He followed that up with a C&D win here just 17 days ago, having stepped up to Class 3 and a mile and two furlongs on similar good to firm ground that he’ll encounter today. This horse looks a very progressive type and has improved for each run to date.
David Probert takes the ride again today, having performed really well last time out and if given the opportunity to win this from the front, I’m very confident of this jockey’s ability to do just that.
He has been raised 9lbs for his recent exploits, but I’m not convinced that will be enough to stop him completing a hat-trick and at the current 3/1 BOG with Ladbrokes, I’m more than happy to place my 1pt win bet on Soviet Rock. To see what your bookie is offering…