Stat of the Day, 6th May 2013
As expected, the tactics from David Probert on Soviet Rock yesterday were to try and win from the front. Despite some big performances behind him, he was able to hold on for a win by three parts of a length with 9lb hike in the weights not enough to stop the horse rattling up a hat trick. Sent off as 15/8 favourite, our advised 3/1 bet represented good value all round and rounded off a decent week for SotD.
Despite today giving us plenty of racing to aim at, today is generally the worst quality racing of all the Bank Holidays, but we’re going to take a look at the first race of the day, a 13-runner, 1 mile handicap on good to form ground, the…
Former assistant to Luca Cumani, Ed Walker is one of the sport’s newer trainers with just 207 races under his belt since late 2010, when Riggins won on the yard’s debut and sole run that year. During 2011 and 2012, Mr Walker got into his stride and started to produce winners on a pretty regular basis, with his his best results coming in handicap contests similar to today’s.
During 2011 and 2012, his yard produced 24 winners from 126 handicap entrants: a very creditable 19.05% strike rate giving his followers a profit of 36.6pts (+29.05% ROI) with this record even better in the odds range SotD generally works to.
When his handicappers were priced in Evens to 6/1 area, the numbers look very impressive at 16 wins from 46 (34.8%) with profits of 24.34pts (+52.9% ROI). Mr Walker runs two horses today, but only Duke of Destiny runs in a handicap.
Duke of Destiny‘s last three outings give considerable hope for a big run today. He started his career with three fairly poor showings in turf maidens on soft ground last year before a switch to the much firmer A/W tracks, where he duly landed a 7f handicap at Lingfield and was then 3rd at the same venue. He narrowly failed to land a Kempton handicap last time out, going down by a head when finishing strongly He looked to have plenty in the tank that day and it is expected that the step up to a mile will suit him here. He has gone up 2lbs for that last set of results, but he still looks fairly treated off a mark of 65 and if he transfers his A/W form back to the turf, we’re in with a good shout.
I’m not over-concerned about that return to turf, as he’ll appreciate the firmness underfoot this time around (clearly not happy on soft). He looks an improving type and if ihs progression continues today, I expect to be collecting some money around 2.10pm. The weight situation is helped by the presence of a 7lb claim from jockey Bradley Bosley and Mr Walker has used 7lb claiming jockey twelve times in the past, recording three wins (25%) for profits of 37pts ( +308.33%), so hopefully that will work in our favour too.
It’s a quite open race, but I think Duke of Destiny is the one to beat, so no shilly-shallying around here, it’s a straight 1pt win bet at 11/2 with William Hill (BOG, of course!), but if you’re funds are elsewhere, simply…