Stat of the Day, 9th May 2013
Plus Fours attracted plenty of attention yesterday, eventually being sent off at the 3/1 favourite. The fact that we weren’t the only people to get this race wrong and lose money is the only small piece of comfort I can gain from the selection. The Sporting Life described his run as “Tracked leaders, reminders 5f out, outpaced halfway, behind final 3f” , diplomatically saying that it was well beaten before halfway! Last of eight and over 40 lengths shy of the winner over a mile is not the way forward for us.
But onto today and the race is a one mile, class 3 maiden for 2 yr olds, where the trip is a mere 5 furlongs for the eleven runners in the…
We’re going to look at Richard Hannon’s record with 2yr olds today, alongside his record here at Chester and ultimately his recent record with two yr olds here at Chester. I may as well, however, cut straight to the chase and tell you that today’s selection is Jive. before explaining the reasoning/stats behind the selection.
Jive is a two-year old, making only his second start and although Richard Hannon has a good record with two-year olds, it is generally accepted that they run better second time around. This is often the case with several trainers, as we mentioned a few days ago. Some are very good at winning first time out, but Mr Hannon’s seem to improve for the run.
I was digging through some figures last night and this is where I got to: From January 2010 to today, Mr Hannon’s two-year olds running at a price between 13/8 and 6/1 (general SotD territory) making their second appearance on a racetrack, win 27.7% of their races (43 wins from 155) on grass, generating 40pts (25.8% ROI) profit at betfair SP.
We now need to take a look at the yard’s record here at Chester, they ran seven horses here last year priced at 6/1 or under and the results were excellent at 1221161, four winners and two placed from seven. And in the last six seasons, they have a 35.5% strike rate here with their two-year olds.
As for the horse itself, there isn’t much we can add to the bare stats, if I’m totally honest. Fifth of twelve on debut at Windsor 17 days ago, not disgraced by any means, only beaten by 4 lengths or so. This one is expected to come on for the run, having showed some promise on debut and the booking of Ryan Moore is a positive, of course. If the market go for this one, that would be a good sign and I’ve placed a 1pt win bet on Jive at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor today, but this price is also available at BetFred and Totesport, so please do…