Stat of the Day, 11th May 2013
Well, yesterday felt like a bit of a kick in the teeth. Gaius Marius gave us a fine run, successfully holding off the 4/5 favourite, but we were caught out by a 20/1 shot who finished like a train and caught our horse virtually on the line. It was a gallant effort from our pick, but ultimately another blank was drawn.
Back to the mainland UK today for a seven-runner, Class 5 maiden for 3 yr olds, where the six furlong trip has been declared as good for the…
Saturday racing can be a bit of a minefield, but I may have found a little niche here of some use. Roger Charlton has a decent recent record in Nottingham maidens, having saddled up four winners from the last ten attempts, returning level stakes profit of 11.90pts at SP and 14.25pts at Betfair SP, returns on stakes of 119% and 142.5% respectively. It could/should also be noted that three of those horses who failed to win were priced at 20/1, 33/1 and 100/1 and could realistically be discounted.
Similar to yesterday’s selection, we’ll have a warm favourite on debut here this afternoon, and despite the breeding etc suggesting that Duke Cosimo will be the best of the runners, there’s absolutely no guarantee that he’ll fire first time out. In fact his yard have only scored with 8.7% of debutants (19/218) in the last three years, losing some 38.25% of stakes in the process (-83.4pts)
The Dark Wizard is the one we’re going with to beat the favourite today. This grey was quite reluctant and green on debut at Bath three weeks ago, but improved and ran much better second time around: also at Bath just twelve days ago. He finished third of nine that, looked a far better prospect and was running on strongly at the death. It is expected that he’ll prefer today’s slightly firmer ground and that the extra half furlong will suit him better than the 5.5f he encountered at bath, where he looked like he needed further.
If he continues to improve and he really should, there’s every chance that another short-priced favourite will be put away and the presence of that favourite means that we’re able to place a 1pt win bet on The Dark Wizard at 3/1 BOG this morning. My money’s down at Coral today, but BetVictor and Bet365 are also offering the same price. So, for your preferred bookie, simply…