Placepot Picks: York, 16th May 2013

YORK — WEDNESDAY 16TH MAY

A nice payout yesterday, with five winners and a second nominated. The ‘pot paid £305.20, and followers of the ‘big perm’ would have returned £244.16 for £57.60 staked, whereas followers of the ticket builder multi-bet perm returned £183.12 for £81.60 staked.

I’m conscious that those stakes are too high for many, so will be trying to cut down a bit down, with the obvious likelihood of a diminished chance of actually getting the blighter up!

Let’s go…

Leg 1: 1.45 – Sixteen five furlong dashers in a handicap means four places… currently. One more non-runner and we’re down to three. Work on that basis.

Judge N’Jury’s record in the race is 541 in the last three years, and he’s going to try hard again. Dungannon loves five fast furlongs and should get them today, and the money for Ponty Acclaim is interesting. Jamaican Bolt has beaten most of these, and should go well again.

This could be an early bath, but we’ve got to trim the perm today. I think Last Bid might go better than his 33/1 odds imply, but he’ll not make the placepot ticket.

A – 6 (Judge N’ Jury), 8 (Jamaican Bolt), 9 (Ponty Acclaim), 10 (Dungannon)

Leg 2: 2.15 – Alain de Royer-Dupre doesn’t bring his Frenchies over for the scenery. Seven of his ten fillies to start at 4/1 or shorter in a Group 1 or 2 in UK have been placed, and I’ll take 70% odds here with a probable UK bias in the pool against his Dalkala. Banker or bunker…

A – 1 (Dalkala)

Leg 3: 2.45 -The Dante, a strong Derby trial. Six of the eight runners are priced at 8/1 or shorter, which says much about its competitiveness. Indian Chief is a horse I’ve speculatively backed for the Derby at 28/1 and 25/1, and he’ll make my A ticket given how O’Brien has been monopolizing the Derby trials to date.

But this is a deeper contest than any of the other trials, and I want two to support him. Ghurair might not have liked the firm ground last time – his wins have been on soft – and this slightly easier surface could see him in better light. He’s a taking sort and the highest rated officially.

Trading Leather, stablemate to Derby favourite, Dawn Approach, has taken plenty of cash this morning and he’ll get on B too.

A – 4 (Indian Chief)
B – 2 (Ghurair), 7 (Trading Leather)

Leg 4: 3.15 – Listed handicaps don’t get much trickier than this. Two For Two is progressive and should again be in the mix, but there are plenty to take him on with. Navajo Chief loves it here but might be shy of this grade. Four year olds – progressive and off lower marks – have dominated this race over the years, which brings in Fort Bastion and Sound Hearts, both on seasonal debut.

Set The Trend and Brae Hill are others with chances in a very open race indeed.

A – 1 (Fort Bastion), 8 (Two For Two)
B – 2 (Set The Trend), 10 (Sounds Hearts), 11 (Brae Hill)

Leg 5: 3.50 – Two of my placepot nemeses from last year – Morawij and Mary’s Daughter – line up here. And I’ve got reservations about the favourite a) on the ground, b) over the trip, and c) having trained on. All in all, this is a mess.

Polski Max is progressive, being on a four-timer here, and will love any juice in the ground as well as the trip. He’s an A player. Morawij’s best run may have been in the Norfolk on good to soft, when fourth to Reckless Abandon, and he’s A stuff too.

On B, I need Mary’s Daughter, who likes it juicy and at the minimum trip. And I think Fire Eyes might be best fresh, and could go well.

I’m looking for a placepot result here, and if the top three in the betting oblige it will essentially be a lean day.

A – 1 (Morawij), 5 (Polski Max)
B – 3 (Fire Eyes), 7 (Mary’s Daughter)

Leg 6: 4.50 – And we close with an impossible maiden. There’s a shortish unraced horse, Parbold, at the top of the market so he’s in. Also, last year’s winning trainer bids to double up with unraced Dream And Search. And Tanseeb ran well above expectations when second on debut and should improve for the extra furlong here.

A – 3 (Dream And Search)
B – 7 (Parbold), 10 (Tanseeb)

That leaves us with perms looking like this:

Just A’s – 4 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1 = 16 bets

All picks – 4 x 1 x 3 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 720 bets (!)

Ticket builder optimized perm – see below.

York Placepot

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