Stat of the Day, 16th May 2013
Nothing special from Samarkand yesterday, as he seemed to struggle from a long way out and eventually only beat one other horse home, finishing 7th of 8, over 50 lengths off the pace, so we’re off chasing North of the border today in the….
Donald McCain’s horses have an excellent strike rate here at Perth of 24% (12 wins from 50) in all contests since the start of 2009, whilst his usual first choice jockey Jason Maguire has a 27.6% strike rate (45/163) in that same time frame. Blind backing of the trainer actually generates a small loss, whilst the jockey shows a small profit of 11.3% over stakes.
However, in all handicap contests, their respective strike rates dip to 18.5% and 23.1%, but their corresponding levels of profits rise to 20.4% ROI and 31.9% ROI. So, the drop in strike rate is more than compensated for in financial terms.
Jason Maguire has actually ridden 15 winners from just 60 attempts in a handicap chase here at Perth, generating 20.86pts (+34.77%) at SP and 28.70pts (+47.83%) at Betfair SP, with his record for Mr McCain in those races reading three winners from thirteen for 9.5pts at SP and 11.3pts at Betfair SP: returns on stakes of 73.1% and 86.92%.
Popular trainer/jockey partnerships are often overbet and represent little value, but the profits are still there for this pair here at Perth and they combine today for several races, but just one Handicap Chase, where Al Qeddaaf becomes our selection.
Al Qeddaaf really took to chasing from the word go, just under a year ago with results of 1122 in his first four attempts, with wins at both Class 4 and then Class 3 followed by a couple of runner-up positions of a mark of 130. He did, admittedly then struggle when asked to compete in Class 2 races, failing to make the frame at Ffos Las before resting for the winter. He was going well enough on his seasonal reappearance at Ayr, before a jumping error put paid to his chances that day and it’s acceptable to ignore his last run (over C&D three weeks ago) when he was quite clearly pushed far too hard early on and pretty much bottomed out 3 from home. Both this seasons defeats have come at Class 3 level.
He runs today in a Class 4 event, which should suit him down to the ground and he’s now back on a very workable mark of just 115, which looks lenient, considering he has finished 2nd here by just a head off 130. It’s a small field today with just six runners, but he has shown his best when there haven’t been too many other distractions around and whilst Tom George’s Sophonie represents a real danger today, I’m confident that we’ll get home in this one.
So, it’s a 1pt win bet on Al Qeddaaf at 3/1 BOG and this price is quite widely available as of 9.45am, so for your preferred bookie…