Stat of the Day, 19th May 2013
Back to back winners for SotD, as Ballinahow Star gained a fairly comfortable victory yesterday, despite giving plenty of weight away all round. Nick Scholfield came her a really good, patient ride and when she was asked to quicken before the peniltimate hurdle, she duly obliged easing into a lead she never looked like reliquishing. Our advised 4/1 was readily taken, as she was sent off as the 11/4 favourite.
Our quest for the hat trick takes us to the picturesque Yorkshire Dales where 11 runners are expected to line up in a Class 3 Fillies’ Handicap where the going is said to be good to soft and the trip is a straight six furlongs in the….
My selection today is lightly raced and therefore unexposed filly Hoodna. She looked very promising last season as a 2yr old, winning a Class 5 maiden on debut at Kempton, before finishing second in a Class 2 contest at Chester. She was only beaten late on that day by Queen Aggie who then made the step up to listed company. Hoodna’s third and final outing in her debut season was also in a listed contest, where she was far from disgraced at Newmarket back in November. She was quite badly hampered in the final furlong and lost second place near the finish, eventually taking third place.
Today sees her make her handicap debut and this looks an ideal opportunity for to land a handicap at the first attempt: this race isn’t as strong as the last two events she has contested and despite not exactly being thrown in at the weights, 92 does look a very fair mark to compete from. I have no issues about selecting her on her handicap debut, as she is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, whose record with handicap debutants is very good in recent years.
Over the last three years, fifteen of his horses making their handicap debut and priced below 6/1 (ie SotD territory!) have won their races from just 44 attempts. This excellent 34.1% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 13pts (+29.5% ROI) at Industry SP and 19pts (+43.2% ROI) at Betfair SP. Those stats combined with the horse’s form and promise from last season give me enough hope to place a 1pt win bet on Hoodna at 5/1 BOG with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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