Placepot: Newton Abbot, 20th May 2013

Newton Abbot Placepot Picks, 20th May 2013

Fourth and fifth in one leg yesterday, having swerved the fav (which finished third), and then the beautifully bred Aegaeus ran last despite being heavily backed, as my other mention in the race, Demolition, was third at 16/1. Not that close really, so we’ll have to try harder today.

The summer jumps is (sort of) upon us, and they go at Newton Abbot this afternoon. That’s where we’ll try to cop the ‘pot.

Leg 1: 2.20 – We start with an eighteen runner (!) handicap hurdle, and it’s little more than a seller in truth. I’m going deep here in the hope of getting a pot-smashing result, which much be possible with so many bad horses taking each other on!

A – 1 (Tae Kwon Do), 6 (Asian Prince), 12 (Bach On Tow)
B – 4 (Mount Vesuvius), 7 (Cash Injection)
C – 3 (Paddleyourowncanue), 14 (Master Wells), 16 (Illegale)

Leg 2: 2.50 – No non-runners at the time of writing in that first race cavalry charge, and yet four of the ten scheduled here are out already. Of the remaining six, Solitary Palm is a fair favourite, despite not winning very often. He’s rated so low nowadays that he really ought to be in with a squeak, especially as he loves fast ground and this sort of a trip.

Istherealdifference could be the improver on this faster turf, but will need to be based on previous form. Spirit Of Lake was second in this back in 2010, his last trip to Newton Abbot and, in a desperate contest, that might be enough to get on the ticket. He’s been well backed too, presumably for the same reason.

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A – 1 (Istherealdifference), 5 (Solitary Palm), 6 (Spirit Of Lake)

Leg 3: 3.20 – A non-runner here brings us down to seven and two places. Both Smalib Monterg and Union Saint ran well in the last few days and bid to build on that fitness. Kylenoe Fairy loves it here, and cannot be discounted, and nor especially can Captain Sharpe.

A – 2 (Smalib Monterg), 5 (Union Saint)
B – 4 (Kylenoe Fairy), 8 (Captain Sharpe)

Leg 4: 3.50 – McIlhatton improved for quicker ground last time, and despite the penalty should go very close again in what looks a shallow race. Garryleigh is the only obvious danger. Favourite, banker.

A – 2 (McIlhatton)

Leg 5: 4.20 – The ‘dead eight’ currently, and another non-runner makes it just two places. This is competitive too. Sublime Talent and Miss Tenacious look well suited to conditions, and Topthorn and Fiftyonefiftyone are in form.

A – 1 (Sublime Talent), 3 (Miss Tenacious)
B – 5 (Fiftyonefiftyone), 7 (Topthorn)

Leg 6: 4.50 – Short stacked after some tricky fare earlier in the card, I’ll have to go banker here. The trouble is the favourite, Talented Kid, looks a proper dodge, despite respected connections. I’m going to take a chance elsewhere, with Victor Dartnall’s My Son Harry. There’s been money for Morpet, so you might want to add him if you’ve a bigger bankroll than I’m using here. But My Son Harry is banker number two in my perm.

A – 2 (My Son Harry)

That leaves us with perms looking like this:

Just A’s – 3 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 = 36 bets

All picks – 8 x 3 x 4 x 1 x 4 x 1 = 384 bets

Ticket builder optimized perm – see below.

Newton Abbot Placepot

Newton Abbot Placepot

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