Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2013
We hit the crossbar yesterday, as Zarosa was sent off as the 4/1 fav, but could only manage 2nd place in what was a close run affair after a two-mile trek around the Nottingham course. She finished a neck behind the winner whilst still staying on. The competitiveness of the race was highlighted by the blanket finish, as the first five home were within a length of each other: the handicapper will have been pleased!
I’m looking for a quick return to the winners’ enclosure today with a crack at an All-Weather, Class 5 Fillies Handicap. As of 10.00am, there were ten runners expected to tackle the 6f trip for the….
Ralph Beckett’s horses are in great form at present, as 24 winners from his last 100 runners generating over 52pts profit at SP will testify. He also has a very good recent record in handicap contests here on Lingfield’s Polytrack with six winners from fifteen since the start of 2012. This excellent 40% strike rate has rewarded Ralph’s followers with profits of 27.49pts at Industry SP and 33.33pts at Betfair SP. Respective profits of 183.3% and 222.2% above stakes aren’t to be sniffed at.
As has become of SotD, Mr Beckett has just the one entry today, which by default means that
At A Clip becomes our selection.
She was a well backed favourite on debut at Newbury, but faded away in the final furlong of a Class 4, 7 furlong maiden after showing plenty of promise for the majority of the race. It seems that she didn’t cope too well with the tiring soft ground that day. She built upon that first run when dropping back a furlong to today’s trip and down a class here at Lingfield (albeit on the turf course), when she raced prominently before staying on to take the lead inside the final furlong, before securing a one length victory.
She is expected to come on even further for that run and a mark of 70 for her handicap debut doesn’t seem too punishing and her yard have a more than respectable 16.25% strike rate for A/W handicap debutants.
She has been well backed in both her previous starts and I expect that to be the case today. That said, I still think that a 1pt win bet on At A Clip at 11/4 BOG with BetVictor still offers some value. Both Stan James and Coral are also offering 11/4, so for your pick of the bookies, simply…
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